Wibowo, Dimas Bagus Satriyo (2020) Analisis Sensitivitas Investasi pada Proyek Pekerjaan Konstruksi Pembangunan Tangki Timbun & Sistem Hidran Avtur di Bandara Internasional Juanda Terminal 2. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Kebutuhan Indonesia akan transportasi udara tidak bisa dihindari. Di Bandara Juanda hingga akhir tahun 2013 jumlah penumpang melebihi kapasitas terminal yang ada. Mengatasi hal tersebut, PT Angkasa Pura I mengembangkan Terminal 2 Bandara Juanda yang mulai dioperasikan tanggal 14 Februari 2014. Dengan berkembangnya sarana dan fasilitas penerbangan Bandara Juanda, maka kebutuhan suplai Bahan Bakar Minyak Penerbangan (BBMP) juga meningkat.
PT Pertamina (Persero) melalui unit bisnis Aviation sebagai penyedia BBMP Avtur di Bandara Juanda, mendukung pengembangan sarana dan fasilitas bandara. Investasi yang dilaksanakan mulai bulan Maret 2016 – Juni 2020 adalah pemasangan jalur pipa sistem hidran untuk Terminal 2 dan selanjutnya penambahan tangki timbun untuk meningkatkan ketahanan stock di DPPU Juanda yang direncanakan akan dimulai di 2020. Namun terjadi penurunan frekuensi penerbangan sejak Desember 2018 dikarenakan penutupan sebagian rute oleh maskapai, pengurangan frekuensi penerbangan dan penurunan harga Avtur atas permintaan pasar. Kondisi ini memerlukan keputusan dilanjutkan atau tidaknya investasi terhadap pembangunan tangki.
Oleh karena itu dilakukan peramalan menggunakan model time series terhadap volume penjualan, harga dan biaya untuk 20 tahun ke depan. Selanjutnya dilakukan analisis penganggaran modal menggunakan Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Incremental antara investasi proyek hidran beserta pembangunan tangki dibandingkan dengan proyek hidran tanpa pembangunan tangki. Analisis sensitivitas digunakan untuk menentukan batas-batas penerimaan investasi alternatif terpilih.
Dengan hasil analisis IRR incremental sebesar 9,81% yang lebih kecil dari MARR sebesar 10,38%, maka alternatif terpilih adalah proyek hidran tanpa pembangunan tangki. NPV yang dihasilkan alternatif terpilih adalah Rp 104.655.116.198,- dan IRR 14,27%. Batas-batas penerimaan investasi menghasilkan volume penjualan minimum 75.495 KL/tahun, harga Avtur minimum Rp. 8.619,-/Liter dan biaya maksimal Rp. 616.293.433.928,-/tahun.
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Indonesia's need for air transportation is inevitable. At Juanda Airport until the end of 2013 the number of passengers exceeds the capacity of the existing terminal. To overcome this problem, PT Angkasa Pura I developed Terminal 2 of Juanda Airport, which began operating on 14 February 2014. With the development of facilities for Juanda Airport, jet fuel supply needs have also increased.
PT Pertamina (Persero) through the Aviation business unit as a provider of jet fuel at Juanda Airport, supports the development of airport facilities. The investment carried out since March 2016 – June 2020 is the installation of a hydrant system pipeline for Terminal 2 and the addition of a storage tank to increase coverage days in the DPPU Juanda planned to begin in 2020. However, flight frequency has decreased since December 2018 due to the closure of some routes by airlines, reduced flight frequency and decreased Avtur prices due to market demand. This condition requires a decision whether to continue investing in the construction of the tank.
Therefore, forecasting is done using the time series model of sales volume, prices and costs for the next 20 years. Furthermore, an analysis of capital budgeting is carried out using the Incremental Internal Rate of Return (IRR) between the hydrant project investment and the tank construction compared to the hydrant project without the construction of a tank. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the limits for the acceptance of selected alternative investments.
With the results of the incremental IRR analysis of 9.81% which is smaller than the MARR of 10.38%, the chosen alternative is the hydrant project without the construction of a tank. The NPV produced by the selected alternative is IDR 104,655,116,198 and an IRR of 14.27%. The limits for receiving investment result in a minimum sales volume of 75,495 KL p.a, a minimum Avtur price of Rp. 8,619 per liter and the maximum cost is Rp. 616,293,433,928 p.a.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Avtur, bandara, penganggaran modal, sensitivitas airports, capital budgeting, jet fuel, sensitivity |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Technology Management |
| Depositing User: | DIMAS BAGUS SATRIYO WIBOWO |
| Date Deposited: | 19 Aug 2020 03:24 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Jun 2023 07:28 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/78880 |
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