Agustin, Nita Tri (2020) Penerapan Model Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (GSTARIMA) untuk Meramalkan Jumlah Muatan Kargo Domestik pada Empat Bandara di Indonesia. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Meningkatnya minat masyarakat untuk membeli barang secara online menyebabkan jasa pengiriman barang banyak digunakan, salah satunya jasa pengiriman barang melalui udara atau kargo udara. Data muatan kargo udara di beberapa bandara termasuk data space-time, sehingga memungkinkan dilakukan peramalan untuk menganalisis jumlah muatan kargo tersebut. Peramalan jumlah muatan kargo yang melibatkan aspek waktu dan lokasi dapat menggunakan model Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (GSTARIMA). Pada penelitian ini digunakan pembobotan lokasi normalisasi korelasi silang serta estimasi parameter dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS) dan Generalized Least Square (GLS). Model terbaik untuk meramalkan jumlah muatan kargo di bandara Soekarno-Hatta, Hasanudin, Kualanamu, dan Juanda adalah GSTAR-SUR〖(1〗_1) karena memiliki nilai RMSE yang minimum sebesar 1484,42.
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The increasing of public’s interest in buying goods by online makes the freight forwarding services are considerably used, one of which is the air freight forwarding. The data of domestic cargo loads in several airports included a spca-time data, so there was a possibility of predecting to analyze the total cargo loads. The prediction of the total cargo loads that involves aspects of time and location can be carried out by using Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (GSTARIMA) model. This research used weighting the location of the cross correlation and parameter estimation by methods of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Generalized Least Square (GLS). The best model to predict the total cargo loads at Soekarno-Hatta, Hasanudin, Kualanamu and Juanda airports was GSTAR-SUR〖(1〗_1), for it had a minimum RMSE value of 1484.42.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSMa 519.5365 Agu p-1 • Agustin, Nita Tri |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | GLS, GSTARIMA, Kargo Udara, Normalisasi Korelasi Silang, OLS GLS, GSTARIMA, Kargo Udara, Normalisasi Korelasi Silang, OLS |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > Economic forecasting--Mathematical models. Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA275 Theory of errors. Least squares. Including statistical inference. Error analysis (Mathematics) |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Nita Tri Agustin |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Aug 2020 13:42 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Jul 2023 00:53 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/79434 |
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