Analisis Risiko Gempabumi Di Sulawesi-Maluku Menggunakan Inhomogeneous Neyman-Scott Cox Process

Trisnisa, Finola (2020) Analisis Risiko Gempabumi Di Sulawesi-Maluku Menggunakan Inhomogeneous Neyman-Scott Cox Process. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Sulawesi-Maluku merupakan wilayah di Indonesia dengan tingkat risiko tertinggi terhadap kejadian gempabumi. Hal ini disebabkan oleh tatanan tektonik yang kompleks serta letak Sulawesi-Maluku yang sangat dekat dengan zona pertemuan antar lempeng. Penelitian ini berfokus pada 3 variabel prediktor yang diduga berpengaruh terhadap risiko terjadinya gempabumi di Sulawesi-Maluku yaitu jarak gempabumi ke sesar, subduksi dan gunung api terdekat. Ketiga faktor geologis tersebut diperkirakan dapat memicu terjadinya gempabumi. Hasil analisis eksplorasi data menggunakan pengujian Chi-squared dan plot K-function menunjukkan bahwa persebaran gempabumi cenderung membentuk klaster dan tidak homogen yang dimungkinkan karena proses alami gempabumi utama dan susulan serta efek faktor geologis. Hal ini memotivasi penulis untuk melakukan pemodelan menggunakan inhomogeneous Neyman-Scott Cox Process (NSCP). Hasil pemodelan menunjukkan bahwa variabel jarak terdekat gempabumi ke subduksi dan gunung api berpengaruh signifikan. Setiap penambahan 100 KM jarak suatu lokasi ke gunung api terdekat, maka peluang terjadinya gempabumi di lokasi tersebut akan berkurang 0,760 kali dan akan berkurang 0,696 kali setiap penambahan 100 KM jarak suatu lokasi ke subduksi terdekat. Hasil validasi model inhomogeneous NSCP baik dalam memodelkan gempabumi di Sulawesi-Maluku pada klaster dengan radius tidak lebih dari 260 KM. Wilayah dengan risiko gempabumi tinggi cenderung berada pada bagian utara dan selatan wilayah Sulawesi-Maluku. ========================================================= Sulawesi-Maluku has the highest level of earthquake risk in Indonesia. It has a complex tectonic structure and located very close to the meeting zone between plates. This study focus on 3 covariates that can affect the intensity of the earthquake in Sulawesi-Maluku. The covariates are the distances from an epicenter (a point) to the nearest fault, the distances an epicenter to the nearest subduction, and the distances an epicenter to the nearest volcano. These three geological factors are expected to trigger earthquakes. The results of data exploration analysis using Chi-squared testing and K-function plots indicate that the distribution of earthquakes tends to form clusters and inhomogeneous. These results are likely due to the natural processes of mainshocks, aftershocks, and geological factor effects. This motivated writer to do modeling using inhomogeneous Neyman-Scott Cox Process (NSCP). Modeling results show that the distance of the epicenter to the nearest subduction and volcano has a significant effect. Each addition of 100 KM distance of a location to the nearest volcano, the chance of an earthquake occurring in that location will decrease by 0.760 times and will decrease by 0.696 times for every addition of 100 KM of the distance of a location to the nearest subduction. Inhomogeneous NSCP model appropriate in modeling the earthquake in Sulawesi-Maluku in the cluster with a radius of no more than 260 KM. Areas with high earthquake risk tend to be in the north and south of the Sulawesi-Maluku region.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.53 Tri a-1 • Trisnisa, Finola
Uncontrolled Keywords: Faults, Spatial Point Patterns, Spatial Point Processes, Subduction, Volcanoes, Gunung Api, Sesar, Spatial Point Pattern, Spatial Point Process, Subduksi
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics
Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Finola Trisnisa
Date Deposited: 24 Aug 2020 07:30
Last Modified: 06 Oct 2020 10:33
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/80829

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