Analisis Curah Hujan Ekstrem pada Kasus Elevasi Tinggi Air Muka Bendungan Bilibili Sulawesi Selatan dengan Pendekatan Peaks Over Threshold

Hartono, Indri Febriani (2020) Analisis Curah Hujan Ekstrem pada Kasus Elevasi Tinggi Air Muka Bendungan Bilibili Sulawesi Selatan dengan Pendekatan Peaks Over Threshold. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Sulawesi Selatan merupakan provinsi di Indonesia yang dipengaruhi oleh iklim tropis basah dengan rata-rata curah hujan 289 mm per tahun dan terletak di dekat laut serta dialiri banyak sungai. Salah satu sungai di Sulawesi Selatan adalah Sungai Jeneberang. Di aliran Sungai Jeneberang terdapat bendungan yaitu Bendungan Bilibili. Beberapa tahun terakhir, bendungan mengalami permasalahan kenaikan tinggi air muka yang diakibatkan oleh tingginya curah hujan yang terjadi di sekitar bendungan. Analisis curah hujan ekstrim menggunakan pendekatan peaks over threshold perlu dilakukan untuk mengetahui return level yaitu curah hujan tertinggi pada periode ulang tertentu. Data yang digunakan merupakan data curah hujan harian Stasiun Hujan Maritim Paotere dan Meteorologi Hasanuddin pada periode 2010 sampai 2018. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan Stasiun Hujan Maritim Paotere, memiliki RMSE return level non-declustering lebih kecil daripada declustering. Sedangkan untuk Stasiun Hujan Meteorologi Hasanuddin, RMSE return level declustering lebih kecil daripada non declustering. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa kebaikan kinerja antara metode non-declustering dan declustering masih belum bisa bedakan secara jelas. Artinya metode declustering memiliki kinerja dengan baik, kalau data ektrem memiliki kasus dependensi yang kuat. Periode ulang untuk return level yaitu 2 tahun sampai 20 tahun dengan estimasi return level untuk kedua stasiun hujan melampaui 100 mm yaitu curah hujan tinggi. ===================================================== South Sulawesi is a province in Indonesia that is affected by a wet tropical climate with an average rainfall of 289 mm per year and is located near the sea and flowed with many rivers. One of the rivers in South Sulawesi is the Jeneberang River. In the Jeneberang River there is a dam, the Bilibili Dam. In the last few years, the dam has experienced the problem of rising water levels caused by the high rainfall occurring around the dam. Analysis of extreme rainfall using peaks over threshold approach needs to be done to determine the return level that is the highest rainfall in a certain return period. The data used are daily rainfall data from the Maritim Paotere and Meteorologi Hasanuddin Rain Station within period of 2010 and 2018. The results obtained shows for Maritim Paotere Rain Station has a lower return level RMSE for non-declustering data than the declustering. However for Meteorologi Hasanuddin Rain Station has a lower return level RMSE for declustering than the non-declustering. This shows that the goodness of performance between the non-declustering and declustering method do not have a distinguished difference. It means that declustering method will work better if the extreme data has a stronger dependency case. Return period for the return level is from 2 years until 20 years with estimated return level for both rain stations are above 100 mm which categorized as high rainfall.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.24 Har a-1 • Hartono, Indri Febriani
Uncontrolled Keywords: Curah Hujan Harian, Extreme Value Theory, Peaks Over Threshold, Return level, Daily Rainfall, Extreme Value Theory, Peaks Over Threshold, Return level
Subjects: S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) > S600.7.R35 Rain and rainfall
T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering > TC167 Dams, reservoirs
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Indri Febriani Hartono
Date Deposited: 27 Aug 2020 07:56
Last Modified: 05 Oct 2020 00:56
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/80982

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