Metode Estimasi Dua Step Untuk Inhomogeneous Log-Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP): Aplikasi Pada Pemetaan Risiko Gempabumi di Sumatra

Sakdiyah, Khalimatus (2020) Metode Estimasi Dua Step Untuk Inhomogeneous Log-Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP): Aplikasi Pada Pemetaan Risiko Gempabumi di Sumatra. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pulau Sumatra memiliki risiko terjadinya gempabumi yang cukup tinggi dikarenakan adanya pertumbukan antara Lempeng Indo-Australia dan Lempeng Eurasia di sebelah barat Sumatra. Proses saling tekan kedua lempeng benua ini menyebabkan patahan, pembentukan zona subduksi serta gunung api. Berdasarkan ulasan tersebut diduga adanya pengaruh jarak sesar aktif, zona subduksi dan gunung api terhadap gempabumi yang terjadi di Pulau Sumatra dengan magnitudo . Sebelum dilakukan pemodelan, maka dilakukan eksplorasi data dan memberikan hasil bahwa sebaran data gempabumi di Sumatra tidak mengikuti pola stasioner atau tidak homogen dan cenderung mengikuti cluster atau mengelompok. Hal ini memotivasi penulis untuk melakukan pemodelan intensitas gempabumi menggunakan Inhomogeneous Log-Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP). Estimasi parameter pada model Inhomogeneous LGCP menggunakan Berman-Turner dan Second-Order Composite Likelihood. Hasil pemodelan mengunakan Inhomogeneous LGCP didapatkan bahwa jarak terdekat sesar aktif dan zona subduksi berpengaruh sigifikan terhadap intensitas terjadinya gempabumi dengan magnitudo di Pulau Sumatra sedangkan jarak terdekat gunung api tidak signifikan. Model Inhomogeneous LGCP dikatakan model yang baik untuk memodelkan gempabumi di Sumatra berdasarkan envelope K-function. Pemetaan prediksi risiko hasil pemodelan yang telah didapatkan memperlihatkan bahwa lokasi di Wilayah Sumatra yang memiliki risiko gempabumi yang tinggi berada di ujung barat dan ujung timur Pulau Sumatra. =============================================================== The island of Sumatra has a high risk of earthquakes due to collision between the Indo-Australian Plate and the Eurasian Plate to the west of Sumatra. The interlocking process of these two continental plates eventually led to faults, the formation of subduction zones and volcanoes. Based on this review, it is suspected that there is an influence of active faults, subduction zones and volcanoes on earthquakes that occur on Sumatra Island with magnitude of ≥4. Prior to modeling, data exploration was carried out and the results showed that the earthquake data distribution in Sumatra did not follow stationary or inhomogeneous patterns and tended to follow clusters or groups. This motivated author to do earthquake intensity modeling using Inhomogeneous Log-Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP). Parameter estimation in the Inhomogeneous LGCP model uses Berman-Turner and Second-Order Composite Likelihood. The results of modeling using the Inhomogeneous LGCP found that the closest distance of active faults and subduction zones have a significant effect on the intensity of earthquakes with magnitudes Sumatra4 on Sumatra Island while the closest distance to volcanoes is not significant. The Inhomogeneous LGCP model is said to be a good model for modeling earthquakes in Sumatra based on envelope K-function. Mapping risk prediction modeling results that have been obtained show that locations in Sumatra Region that have high risk of earthquakes are in the western and eastern ends of the island of Sumatra.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.53 Sak m-1 • Sakdiyah, Khalimatus
Uncontrolled Keywords: Berman-turner, Gunung Api, Second-Order Composite Likelihood, Sesar Aktif, Subduksi. Active Fault, Berman-Turners, Second-Order Composite Likelihood, Subduction, Vulcano.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Khalimatus Sakdiyah
Date Deposited: 26 Aug 2020 06:19
Last Modified: 14 Oct 2020 12:38
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/81015

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