ANALISIS SPATIAL-TEMPORAL INCIDENCE RATE DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE DI BALI DENGAN PENDEKATAN DISTRIBUSI GAMMA

Naf'an, Nur Sofiyulloh (2020) ANALISIS SPATIAL-TEMPORAL INCIDENCE RATE DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE DI BALI DENGAN PENDEKATAN DISTRIBUSI GAMMA. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) merupakan penyakit yang disebabkan oleh virus Dengue yang ditularkan oleh nyamuk Aedes aegypti. Penyakit DBD sering terjadi di negara yang memiliki iklim tropis, salah satunya adalah Indonesia. Bali merupakan provinsi dengan incidence rate tertinggi di Indonesia pada tahun 2017. Salah satu faktor yang mempengaruhi penyebaran penyakit DBD adalah faktor iklim seperti suhu, curah hujan dan kelembapan udara. Permasalahan tersebut dianalisis secara spasial dan temporal dengan menggunakan metode Regresi Gamma, Geographically Weighted Gamma Regression (GWGR) dan Geographically Temporal Weighted Gamma Regression (GTWGR). Hasil Regresi Gamma menghasilkan bahwa faktor iklim berupa curah hujan, suhu dan kelembaban udara berpengaruh terhadap incidence rate di Bali. Pemodelan GWGR menghasilkan 5 kelompok kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Bali yang memiliki kesamaan variabel signifikan terhadap incidence rate. Hasil pemodelan GTWGR menghasilkan bahwa mayoritas incidence rate demam berdarah di daerah kabupaten/kota pada tahun 2014 hingga tahun 2016 dipengaruhi oleh faktor suhu rata-rata, dan tiap daerah memiliki minimal satu faktor iklim yang berpengaruh pada tiap bulannya. Penentuan model terbaik berdasarkan nilai AICc diperoleh hasil bahwa pemodelan menggunakan GTWGR lebih baik daripada metode GWGR. =========================================================== Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever is a disease caused by the Dengue Virus, transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquitos. Dengue fever disease often occurs in tropical regions, including Indonesia. Bali had the highest dengue incidence rate in 2017. Climate factors, such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity, affect the dengue mosquitos’ life cycle, and hence the number of dengue cases. In this study, we analyze the relation between dengue cases in terms of incidence rate and climate parameters using Gamma Regression. In addition to that, we apply Geographically Weighted Gamma Regression (GWGR) and Geographically Temporal Weighted Gamma Regression (GTWGR) methods to incorporate spatial and temporal factors. The results of the Gamma Regression analysis show that rainfall, temperature and relative humidity significantly correlated to the incidence rate in Bali. GWGR modeling results in 5 groups of cities in Bali with similar climate parameter(s) that significantly correlate to the dengue incidence rate. The analysis using GTWGR shows that majority of the dengue incidence rate in 2014-2016 was affected by the average temperature, and that at least one climate factor significantly influence the monthly incidence rate in each region. According to the AICc values, the model using GTWGR modelling is better than the GWGR methods.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.542 Naf a-1 • Naf`an, Nur Sofiyulloh
Uncontrolled Keywords: Aedes aegypti Mosquito, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Incidence Rate, Spatial, Temporal Demam Berdarah, Incidence Rate, Nyamuk Aedes aegypti, Spasial, Temporal
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Nur Sofiyulloh Naf'an
Date Deposited: 26 Aug 2020 03:30
Last Modified: 14 Oct 2020 12:55
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/81139

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