Susanti, Rika (2014) Prediksi Penjualan Sepeda Motor Merek “X” Di Kabupaten Dan Kotamadya Malang Dengan Metode Peramalan Hierarki. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya.
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Abstract
Penjualan sepeda motor merek “X” cenderung mengalami
peningkatan setiap tahun. Selain itu, ada indikasi bahwa penjualannya
mempunyai pola musiman dan cenderung tinggi pada saat menjelang
atau sesudah lebaran. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan
penjualan sepeda motor merek “X” di Kabupaten dan Kotamadya
Malang dimana dua wpilayah tersebut merupakan wilayah dengan
penjualan yang tertinggi di Jawa Timur. Peramalan dalam penelitian ini
dilakukan menggunakan metode peramalan hierarki, karena data
penjualan tersebut dapat didisagregasi menurut jenis produk dan waktu.
Pendekatan yang dilakukan yaitu pendekatan top-down dan bottom-up.
Berdasarkan pemodelan pada level 1 dengan pendekatan top-down,
diketahui bahwa penjualan tahunan di Kabupaten Malang dipengaruhi
oleh jumlah penduduk usia produktif, sedangkan di Kotamadya Malang
penjualannya dipengaruhi oleh PDRB per kapita. Metode peramalan
hierarki terbaik untuk memprediksi penjualan sepeda motor merek “X”
di Kabupaten dan Kotamadya Malang masing-masing adalah dengan
pendekatan bottom-up dan pendekatan top-down dengan perhitungan
proporsi pada level 2 untuk jenis matic menggunakan proporsi ramalan,
untuk cub menggunakan proporsi data histori 2, dan untuk jenis sport
menggunakan proporsi data histori 1
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Sales of “X” motorcycle tend to increase every year. In addition,
there are indications that “X” motorcycle’s sale have seasonal patterns
and tends to be high before or after Eid Day. This research aims to
predict the sales of “X” motorcycle in Malang regency and Malang city
which two regions with the highest sale of “X” motorcycles in East
Java. This research was conducted by using hierarchical forecasting
method, because “X” sales data consisting of sales data for three types
of motorcycles, and the annual sales data can be disagregate into
monthly sales data. The approach taken is a top-down and bottom-up.
Based on modeling at level 1 with a top-down approach, it is known that
annual sales of “X” in Malang Regency is influenced by the number of
productive age population, while in Malang City sales affected by Gross
Domestic Produk (GDP) per capita. The best hierarchy forecasting
method to predict the sales of “X” motorcycle in Malang Regency is the
bottom-up approach, whereas in the Malang city’s best model obtained
by the top-down approach which is the calculation of the proportion for
matic use Forecasting Proportions, for cub using Hystorical Proportion
2 , and for sport using Hystorical Proportion 1
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.55 Sus p |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bottom-up, Sepeda Motor Merek “X”, Top-down |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | EKO BUDI RAHARJO |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Oct 2020 06:09 |
| Last Modified: | 06 Oct 2020 06:09 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/82080 |
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