Kurniawan, I Made Bayu (2014) Peramalan Volume Penjualan Sepeda Motor Di Kabupaten Trenggalek Dengan Menggunakan Metode Arimax Dan Anfis. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya.
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Abstract
Dewasa ini transportasi merupakan sektor yang sangat penting
bagi masyarakat dunia termasuk Indonesia. Salah satu sarana
transportasi yang paling banyak disukai masyarakat adalah
sepeda motor. Dalam pasar sepeda motor Indonesia, sepeda motor
merk “X” selalu menjadi market leader. PT. “C” sebagai distributor
sepeda motor merk “X” berupaya untuk menguasai pangsa
pasar sepeda motor di Jawa Timur khususnya di Kabupaten
Trenggalek dengan strategi pemasaran berbasis peramalan. Oleh
karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan metode
ARIMAX dan ANFIS dalam meramalkan total market sepeda
motor per jenis di Kabupaten Trenggalek baik dengan ataupun
tanpa pendekatan disagregasi.. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan
bahwa ramalan dengan disagregasi ternyata lebih baik daripada
ramalan tanpa disagregasi. Peramalan terbaik untuk total market
sepeda motor bebek menggunakan model ANFIS dengan fungsi
Gbell. Peramalan terbaik untuk total market sepeda motor matic
menggunakan model ARIMAX (0,0,[2,13]) (1,0,0)12. Peramalan
terbaik untuk total market sepeda motor sport menggunakan model
ARIMAX ([1,12],0,[2,6])
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Today the transportation sector is very important for people around the world, including Indonesia. One of the favorite vehicle is motorcycle. In the Indonesian market, motorcycle “X” always become a market leader. PT. “C” as motorcycle “X” distributor company, try to control the motorcycle market share in East Java, especially in Trenggalek district. In order to achieve its goal, PT. “C” needs forecasting of future total market. Therefore, this study aimed to compare ARIMAX and ANFIS methods in forecasting the total market of motorcycle by types in Trenggalek district. The comparison also applied to the forecast results before and after its disaggregated. The results showed that forecast model with disaggregation approach is better than forecast model without disaggregation. The best forecasting for the total market cub is using ANFIS model with Gbell function. The best forecasting for the total market matic is using ARIMAX (0,0,[2,13])(1,0,0)12. The best forecasting for the total market sport is using ARIMAX ([1,12],0,[2,6])
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.535 Kur p |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Total Market, ARIMAX, ANFIS, Disagregasi |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | EKO BUDI RAHARJO |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Jan 2021 01:23 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Jan 2021 01:24 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/82368 |
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