Rahayuningtyas, Novita Dwi (2014) Peramalan Total Market Sepeda Motor dan Total Penjualan Motor “X” di Propinsi Jawa Timur dengan Pendekatan Model ARIMA Box-Jenkins dan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Input (ARIMAX). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya.
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Abstract
Pertumbuhan penduduk di Jawa Timur berdampak pada
meningkatnya kebutuhan transportasi. Salah satu transportasi yang
banyak digunakan yaitu sepeda motor dikarenakan transportasi ini lebih
murah dan efisien. Tentunya peningkatan penjualan sepeda motor
memberikan keuntungan bagi produsen. Di Jawa Timur, distributor
utama sepeda motor “X” adalah PT. “Y”. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk
meramalkan penjualan sepeda motor “X” dan total market sepeda motor
di Jawa Timur, sehingga dapat diperkirakan market share penjualan
sepeda motor “X” periode berikutnya. Metode yang digunakan dalam
penelitian ini adalah ARIMA Box-Jenkins dan ARIMA dengan input
variansi kalender. Dalam penelitian ini, data yang digunakan yaitu data
total market sepeda motor dan penjualan “X” di Jawa Timur. Data
terbagi menjadi dua, yaitu in-sample periode Januari 2003 sampai
dengan Desember 2013 serta data out-sample periode Januari 2014
sampai dengan Maret 2014. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model
terbaik total market sepeda motor yaitu ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 dan
penjualan sepeda motor “X” di Jawa Timur yaitu model ARIMA
([1,13],1,0)(1,1,0)12 dikarenakan memiliki nilai sMAPE terkecil
berdasarkan out-sample
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Population growth in East Java have an impact on the growing
transportation needs. Motorcycle as one of the most useful
transportation because it gives more value such as cheaper and more
efficient in the future. Actually, the increased of total sales motorcycle
gives benefit to manufacturer. In East Java, the main distributor of
motorcycle “X” is PT.”Y”. This research purposed to forecast total
sales of motorcycle “X” and total market of motorcycle in East Java, in
order that estimated market share of total sales motorcycle “X” next
period. The method to forecast total sales motorcycle “X” and total
market is ARIMA Box-Jenkins and ARIMAX with calendar variation
involved. In this research, the data used about the number of total
market and total sales motorcycle “X” in East Java. The Data divided
as in-sample, from January 2003 until December 2013 and data outsample
from period January 2014 until March 2014. The conclusion of
analysis, the best model for modeling and forecasting of total market is
ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and total sales motorcycle “X” in East Java is
ARIMA model with model ([1,13],1,0)(1,1,0)12. These models have the
minimum of sMAPE value according to out-sample data.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.53 Rah p |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ARIMA Box-Jenkins, ARIMAX, Total Market, Total Penjualan Motor “X” |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics, Computation, and Data Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | EKO BUDI RAHARJO |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Jan 2021 01:44 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Jan 2021 01:44 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/82369 |
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