Analisa Sensitivitas Untuk Mengetahui Prospek Investasi Jalan Tol : Studi Kasus Proyek Jalan Tol Krian – Legundi – Bunder – Manyar (Klbm)

Hartoyo, Yusuf (2020) Analisa Sensitivitas Untuk Mengetahui Prospek Investasi Jalan Tol : Studi Kasus Proyek Jalan Tol Krian – Legundi – Bunder – Manyar (Klbm). Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

COVID-19 merupakan virus yang telah dinyatakan sebagai pandemi oleh
WHO, dan di indonesia sendiri menetapkan COVID-19 sebagai bencana
nasional melalui Keputusan Presiden Nomor 12 Tahun 2020. Sumber
utama transmisi dari virus ini berasal dari percikan pernapasan atau
droplet yang salah satu pencegahan penyebarannya adalah dengan
penggunaan masker. Saat ini, pemerintah sedang memberlakukan new
normal. Walaupun beraktivitas di lingkungan luar, protokol kesehatan
wajib diikuti dan seluruh masyarakat harus disiplin dalam menjalaninya.
Pada tugas akhir ini dirancang sebuah sistem otomatis pendeteksi wajah
bermasker menggunakan deep learning dalam menjalankan fungsinya.
Sistem yang dirancang menggabungkan model deep learning, detektor
wajah, dan program tracking dan counting menjadi sebuah sebuah sistem
otomatis yang dibantu oleh Graphic User Interface (GUI) serta sebuah
perangkat alarm dan platform Internet of Things dalam pemakaiannya.
Berdasarkan hasil pengujian yang dilakukan mengikuti batasan masalah
yang telah dirumuskan, model memiliki tingkat akurasi klasifikasi pada
dataset test sebesar 99%. Implementasi pada Raspberry Pi 4
menunjukkan sistem berbasis model deep learning yang telah dibuat
sukses melakukan deteksi, tracking dan counting yang datanya
dikirimkan kepada alarm yang dirancang dan sebuah platform IoT,
Ubidots. Performa deteksi maksimal dicapai saat objek deteksi bergerak
0,7 m/s, pencahayaan ≥ 100 lux, dan penggunaan modul TensorFlow Lite
pada sistem dengan akurasi sebesar 85,7%. Hasil perbandingan dengan
metode deteksi lain menunjukkan karakterisasi model deep learning
memiliki akurasi deteksi sebesar 82%, lebih tinggi dari metode Haar
classifier dengan akurasi 53% walaupun waktu proses yang dilakukan
lebih lama 23% dalam menjalankan fungsi sistem
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PT Waskita Bumi Wira as highway corporation (BUJT) invested in KrianLegundi-Bunder-Manyar toll road using viability gap fund (VGF) scheme.
According to the Toll Road Concession Agreement Contract (PPJT) in 2016 among
BPJT-BUJT-PII had been agreed upon several accepted investment variables, those
variables were: total investment = Rp12.224.389.000.000, daily traffic volume on
average (LHR) = 21,874 vehicles/day, loan interest 12.5% , light vehicle toll rate =
Rp1.250/km, internal rate of return on equity (IRRonEquity) = 17.64%, 14th-year
payback period and net present value (NPV) = Rp 3.731.695.000.000. There are
some issues happened in the construction period. They were design changes and
land acquisition delayed that causing cost overrun. With 45 years concession period,
inaccuracies risk of traffic growth prediction, specific and non-specific risk factors
and other uncertainties greatly affect the prospects of investment. Therefore the
investment need to be re-examined before it divested in 2025 by sharpening the
minimum attractive rate of return (MARR) and traffic, then it should be compared
with the initial business plan. Estimating divestment price also examined in this
study. The assessment criteria which will be used for sensitivity analysis are NPV
and IRRonEquity. The approach in determining MARR is using of MARRpremium =
15.81%. Sensitivity analysis using deterministic approach performed to obtain the
boundaries of investment cost changes, land acquisition cost changes, traffic
changes, and debt (syndication loan) changes to NPV on several toll rates scenarios.
This research shows that NPV is very sensitive to investment cost changes. Known
also that on the toll rate scenario based on PPJT the compensation fee can be given
in one of the following conditions: increase of investment cost up to 7%, traffic is
under 75%, increasing of debt (syndication loan) up to 9%. Stochastic analysis
shows that probability of not-exceed variable changing is 37.29% to 46.56%

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sensitivity, IRRonEquity. MARRpremium, KLBM tollroad, stochastic
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis T Technology > TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements T Technology > TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements > TE7 Transportation--Planning
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Technology Management > 61101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	yusuf hartoyo
Date Deposited:	26 Feb 2021 00:55
Last Modified:	26 Feb 2021 00:58
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/82888

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