Simulasi Penyebaran Covid-19 Kota Surabaya berdasarkan Model SIRD

Yuwine, Celia Chintara (2021) Simulasi Penyebaran Covid-19 Kota Surabaya berdasarkan Model SIRD. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Coronavirus Disease atau Covid-19 adalah penyakit yang menyerang saluran pernafasan, disebabkan oleh virus corona yang merupakan satu kelompok dengan virus corona penyebab penyakit Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) dan Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), dan dapat menyebabkan pneumonia, hingga kematian. Angka kasus Covid-19 di Kota Surabaya terus mengalami peningkatan. Hingga tanggal 28 November 2020, total kasus terkonfirmasi positif di Kota Surabaya mencapai angka 16.000 dengan total kasus kematian 1206 jiwa. Sejak awal kemunculan kasus pertama di Kota Surabaya, data pertambahan kasus konfirmasi positif di Surabaya sangat fluktuatif. Hal ini menjadi tantangan dalam upaya membangun sebuah sistem untuk mensimulasikan penyebaran Covid-19. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut, dibutuhkan beberapa proses untuk mengolah data kasus Covid-19 Kota Surabaya, yaitu smoothing data, dan clustering. Hasil olahan data kemudian digunakan untuk membangun simulasi penyebaran Covid-19 Kota Surabaya dengan bentuk model SIRD menggunakan tools AnyLogic. Skenario pengujian model dilakukan dalam 6 macam, dan skenario pengujian 5 menjadi skenario terbaik dengan nilai MAPE terkecil 0.008% untuk simulasi nilai susceptible dan MAPE terbesar 3.816% untuk simulasi nilai recovered.
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Coronavirus Disease or Covid-19 is a disease that attacks the respiratory tract, caused by the corona virus which is a group with the corona virus that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and can cause pneumonia, and even death. The number of Covid-19 cases in the City of Surabaya continues to increase. As of November 28, 2020, the total number of confirmed positive cases in the City of Surabaya reached 16,000 with a total of 1206 cases of death. Since the beginning of the appearance of the first case in the city of Surabaya, data on the increase in positive confirmed cases in Surabaya has been very volatile. This is a challenge in efforts to build a system to simulate the spread of Covid-19. To overcome this problem, several processes are needed to process data on the Covid-19 case in Surabaya, namely data smoothing and clustering. The processed data is then used to build a simulation of the spread of Covid-19 in the city of Surabaya with the SIRD model using the AnyLogic tools. The model testing scenario was carried out in 6 types, and testing scenario 5 succeeded to be the best scenario by obtaining the smalles MAPE value of 0.008% when simulating the number of cases of susceptible and the largest MAPE value of 3.816% when simulating the number of recovered case.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	model SIRD, Covid-19, AnyLogic, smoothing
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.5 Data Processing T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.5 Information technology. IT--Auditing T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.6 Management information systems
Divisions:	Faculty of Intelligent Electrical and Informatics Technology (ELECTICS) > Informatics Engineering > 55201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Celia Chintara Yuwine
Date Deposited:	02 Mar 2021 03:54
Last Modified:	02 Mar 2021 03:56
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/83087

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