Dewi, Eka Vera (2021) Analisis Penilaian Usaha Dan Manajemen Risiko Pada Keputusan Kelayakan Investasi Dengan Mempertimbangkan Ketidakpastian (Studi Kasus: Akuisisi Jalan Tol Oleh PT. X). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Berdasarkan Rencana pembangunan jangka menengah nasional (RPJMN) tahun 2020 – 2024, proyek pembangunan jalan tol menjadi salah satu proyek prioritas yang dijalankan oleh pemerintah. Investasi jalan tol membutuhkan dana investasi yang besar sehingga pemerintah membuka kesempatan pihak swasta untuk mendanai proyek jalan tol melalui skema Kerjasama Pemerintah dan Badan Usaha (KPBU). PT X merupakan salah satu perusahaan swasta yang berperan sebagai operator sekaligus investor pada proyek jalan tol. Dalam proses akuisisi suatu saham jalan tol dari PT Y atau pemegang hak konsesi atas jalan tol tersebut saat ini, perlu dilakukan penilaian usaha untuk menentukan nilai wajar dari proyek tersebut melalui parameter Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), dan Payback Period (PBP). Dengan menggunakan WACC sebesar 8,742%, nilai NPV proyek sebesar Rp Rp 2.739.737.533,680,00, dengan IRR sebesar 15,39% dan PBP pada tahun ke 10 sehingga proyek dikatakan layak untuk diakuisisi. Di sisi lain, terdapat masalah berupa arus kas negatif yang perlu diatasi untuk menghindari kemungkinan kegagalan proyek dengan mengubah capital structure menjadi 38,5%:61,5% (self financing : bank loan) dan mengubah debt repayment profile atau melakukan working capital injection. Dalam melakukan negosiasi dengan PT Y sebagai BUJT pemegang konsesi, PT X perlu menetapkan harga maksimum akuisisi sehingga terhindar dari potensi kerugian. Harga akuisisi maksinum yang dapat dibayarkan oleh PT X adalah sebesar Rp 2.372.500.000.000. Berdasarkan karakteristik proyek jalan tol yang rentan akan risiko dan ketidakpastian, maka hasil uji kelayakan perlu diuji sensitivitas dengan menerapkan integrasi antara proses manajemen risiko berbasis ISO AS/NZS 31000:2018 dan proses assessment ketidakpastian dengan metode NPV-at-Risk berbasis simulasi Monte Carlo. Variabel risiko yang mempengaruhi hasil studi kelayakan jalan tol adalah laju inflasi, forecast error volume LHR, volume LHR awal, biaya konstruksi dan biaya O&M. Output dari proses manajemen risiko berupa mitigasi variabel risiko laju inflasi dalam bentuk risk transfer kepada pemerintah dengan mengubah laju inflasi menjadi fixed rate 3% yang menyebabkan standar deviasi dari rata – rata NPV semakin kecil dan level risiko laju inflasi menurun dari high risk menjadi low risk. Sedangkan untuk variabel risiko selain laju inflasi, mitigasi yang tepat untuk dilakukan adalah risk acceptance.
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Based on the national mid-term development plan (RPJMN) for 2020-2024,
toll road construction projects are one of the priority projects carried out by the
government. Toll road investment requires a large investment fund so that the
government opens opportunities for the private sector to finance toll road projects
through the Public Private Partnership (PPP) scheme. PT X is a private company
that acts as an operator as well as an investor in toll road projects. In the process of
acquiring a toll road share from PT Y or the current concession holder of the toll
road, it is necessary to conduct a business assessment to determine the fair value of
the project through parameters of Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return
(IRR), and Payback Period (PBP). By using a WACC of 8.742%, the project's NPV
value is IDR 2,576,439,484,130.00, with an IRR of 15.39% and PBP in the 10th
year so that the project is said to be eligible for acquisition. On the other hand, there
is a problem in the form of negative cash flow that needs to be addressed to avoid
the possibility of project failure by changing the capital structure to 38.5%: 61.5%
(self-financing: bank loan) and changing the debt repayment profile or carrying out
a working capital injection. In negotiating with PT Y as the BUJT concession
holder, PT X needs to set a maximum acquisition price so as to avoid potential
losses. The maximum acquisition price that can be paid by PT X is IDR
2,372,500,000,000. Based on the characteristics of toll road projects that are prone
to risk and uncertainty, the results of the feasibility test need to be tested for
sensitivity by applying the integration between the AS / NZS 31000: 2018 ISObased risk management process and the uncertainty assessment process using the
NPV-at-Risk method based on Monte Carlo simulations. Risk variables that affect
the results of the toll road feasibility study are the inflation rate, forecast error of
LHR volume, initial LHR volume, construction costs and O&M costs. . The output
of the risk management process is in the form of mitigation of the inflation rate risk
variable by risk transfer to the government to changing the inflation rate to a fixed
rate of 3% which causes the standard deviation of the average NPV to get smaller
and the level of risk for the inflation rate to decrease from high risk to low risk. As
for the risk variable other than the inflation rate, the appropriate mitigation to do is
risk acceptance.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Toll Road Acquisition, Feasibility Study, Maximum Acquisition Price, Akuisisi Jalan Tol, Studi Kelayakan, Harga Akuisisi Maksimal, NPV-at-Risk, ISO 31000:2018 |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4028.V3 Valuation. Economic value H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis T Technology > TS Manufactures > TS173 Reliability of industrial products |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Eka Vera Dewi |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Mar 2021 18:41 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Mar 2021 18:41 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/83698 |
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