Septhalya, Bella (2021) Penilaian Dan Perbandingan Kewajaran Harga Saham Metode Price Earning Ratio, Dividend Discount Model, Dan Discounted Cash Flow Pada Perusahaan Subsektor Konstruksi Bangunan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2015-2020. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Pada masa pandemi ini pasar modal memiliki perkembangan yang cukup pesat di Indonesia. Hal ini dapat dilihat dari peningkatan jumlah investor yang cukup signifikan dimana jumlah investor pasar modal di Indonesia meningkat sebesar 56,21 persen dari 2,48 juta investor pada akhir 2019 menjadi 3,88 juta investor pada akhir 2020 dan menembus 5 juta investor pada April 2021 lalu berdasarkan data PT Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI). Sebelum memutuskan untuk melakukan investasi saham, investor sebaiknya terlebih dahulu melakukan penilaian terhadap saham-saham yang akan dipilih. Valuasi metode Price Earning Ratio, Dividend Discount Model, dan Discounted Cash Flow merupakan metode valuasi yang sering digunakan oleh para analis. Dengan dilakukannya penilaian saham, maka investor dapat mengetahui nilai intrinsik saham dan selanjutnya dapat dibandingkan dengan nilai pasar saham untuk menentukan keputusan investasi yang dianjurkan. Terdapat banyak perusahaan yang menjanjikan bagi para investor dalam menanamkan modalnya, di antaranya adalah perusahaan dalam subsektor konstruksi bangunan. Oleh karena itu, tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui bagaimana kondisi harga wajar saham dengan valuasi metode PER, DDM, dan DCF pada perusahaan subsektor konstruksi bangunan dan metode valuasi mana yang paling akurat. Sampel penelitian ini adalah delapan perusahaan subsektor konstruksi bangunan yang diambil menggunakan pendekatan nonprobability sampling dengan teknik purposive sampling. Analisis yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini adalah valuasi metode PER dan DDM, serta uji akurasi terhadap metode PER, DDM, dan DCF menggunakan RMSE. Data harga wajar metode DCF pada penelitian ini menggunakan data Simply Wall St. Hasil penelitian berdasarkan pendekatan PER menunjukkan bahwa saham JKON, PTPP, SSIA, TOTL, dan WIKA berada dalam kondisi undervalued dan saham ADHI, NRCA, dan WSKT dalam kondisi overvalued. Berdasarkan metode DDM pertumbuhan nol, seluruh saham berada pada kondisi overvalued. Berdasarkan metode DDM pertumbuhan konstan, saham ADHI, JKON, dan NRCA berada dalam kondisi undervalued dan saham PTPP, SSIA, TOTL, WIKA dan WSKT dalam kondisi overvalued. Berdasarkan metode DDM pertumbuhan tidak konstan, seluruh saham berada pada kondisi undervalued. Berdasarkan metode DCF Simply Wall St, saham JKON, PTPP, TOTL dan WSKT berada dalam kondisi undervalued dan saham ADHI, NRCA, SSIA dan WIKA dalam kondisi overvalued. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan uji akurasi RMSE, metode PER lebih akurat dibandingkan dengan metode DDM dan DCF.
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During this pandemic, the capital market has developed quite rapidly in Indonesia. This can be seen from the significant increase in the number of investors where the number of capital market investors in Indonesia increased by 56.21 percent from 2.48 million investors at the end of 2019 to 3.88 million investors at the end of 2020 and penetrated 5 million investors in April 2021 based on data from PT Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI). Before deciding to invest, investors should first make an assessment of the stocks to be selected. Price Earning Ratio method, Dividend Discount Model, and Discounted Cash Flow are valuation methods that are often used by analysts. By doing a stock valuation, investors can find out the intrinsic value of shares and then it can be compared with the stock market value to determine recommended investment decisions. There are many companies that are promising for investors to invest their capital, including companies in the building construction sub-sector. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the condition of the fair price of shares with PER, DDM, and DCF valuation methods in building construction sub-sector companies and which valuation method is the most accurate. The sample of this research is eight companies in the building construction sub-sector which were taken using a nonprobability sampling approach with purposive sampling technique. The analysis conducted in this research is the valuation of the PER and DDM methods, as well as the accuracy test for the PER, DDM, and DCF methods using RMSE. The DCF method fair price data in this study uses Simply Wall St data. The results of the research based on the PER approach show that the stock of JKON, PTPP, SSIA, TOTL, WIKA, and WSKT is undervalued and stock of ADHI, NRCA, and WSKT is overvalued. Based on the zero growth DDM method, all stocks are in overvalued condition. Based on the constant growth DDM method, stock of ADHI, JKON, and NRCA is undervalued and stock of PTPP, SSIA, TOTL, WIKA and WSKT is overvalued. Based on the DDM method of non-constant growth, all stocks are in undervalued condition. Based on the DCF Simply Wall St method, stock of JKON, PTPP, TOTL and WSKT is undervalued and stock of ADHI, NRCA, SSIA and WIKA is overvalued. Based on the results of the calculation of the RMSE accuracy test, the PER method is more accurate than the DDM and DCF methods.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Valuasi Saham, Nilai intrinsik, Price Earning Ratio, Dividend Discount Model, Discounted Cash Flow, Stock Valuation, Intrinsic Value |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Business Management > 61205-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Bella Septhalya |
| Date Deposited: | 31 Jul 2021 17:43 |
| Last Modified: | 31 Jul 2021 22:11 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/84622 |
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