Decision and Feasibility Analysis Of Business Transformation Using Monte Carlo Simulation And Expected Value Of Imperfect Information (Case Study: PT. X)

Sinatria, Farindita Fardin (2021) Decision and Feasibility Analysis Of Business Transformation Using Monte Carlo Simulation And Expected Value Of Imperfect Information (Case Study: PT. X). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Membangun perkembangan pariwisata nasional merupakan aktivitas penting untuk mendukung perkembangan ekonomi nasional, terlebih lagi setelah terjadinya pandemi Covid-19. Indonesia sebagai negara yang memiliki beragam budaya dan peninggalan sejarah dengan tempat wisata yang indah telah mencanangkan program Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah (RPJMN) 2020-2024 guna memfokuskan pengembangan pariwisata nasional. Rencana nasional ini mengharuskan PT. X sebagai salah satu BUMN Holding Pariwisata untuk mengoptimisasi operasi bisnisnya salah satunta dengan mengajukan pendanaan sebesar 500 miliar rupiah ke pemerintah Indonesia menggunakan jasa konsultan. Studi riset ini membantu dalam penilaian pengambilan keputusan dengan mengkonsiderasi risiko finansial dalam transformasi bisnis, dilanjutkan dengan perhitungan harga yang layak untuk penggunaan jasa Konsultan X. Solusi permasalahan dilakukan dengan memodelkan situasi kedalam bentuk decision tree. Dalam menilai model keputusan, simulasi Monte Carlo digunakan untuk mengkonsiderasi ketidakpastian yang muncul dari kemungkinan diterimanya pengajuan pendanaan. Lebih lanjut, metode Expected Value of Imperfect Information (EVII) digunakan untuk mendapatkan nilai ekonomi yang sesuai untuk jasa Konsultan X. Riset ini menghasilkan pilihan keputusan terbaik bagi PT. X berupa tindakan untuk mengajukan pendanaan guna melakukan transformasi bisnis dengan probabilitas sukses sebesar 74%. Simulasi EVII menyimpulkan bahwasanya nilai ekonomis paling sesuai untuk Konsultan X adalah pada kisaran 2,000,000,000 - 2,391,000,000 rupiah dengan probabilitas kemunculan sebesar 47.4%. Oleh karena itu, harga awal yang ditawarkan oleh Konsultan X untuk jasa yang diberikan sebesar 4.5 miliar rupiah tidak layak atau tidak feasible.
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Developing nation’s tourism activities is important to support the growth of its national economy, more so after the occurrence of Covid-19 pandemic. Indonesia as a country with variety of cultural heritage and beautiful destination has construct a program through Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah (RPJMN) 2020-2024 to focus on the development of tourism activities. This condition requires PT. X to optimize their business operations by proposing a funding injection of 500 billion rupiah to Indonesia government with the help of a consultant. Therefore, this research study assess the decision and risk of PT. X business transformation continued with the calculation of feasible cost to obtain additional information through Consultant X services. A solution to this problem is proposed by modelling the problem situation into a decision tree evaluated by a financial parameter, which is the projected five years income of PT. X under two alternatives. In assessing the decision model, Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the uncertainty that occurs from the proposal acceptance rate. Furthermore, the writer uses Bayes’ Theorem with Expected Value of Imperfect Information (EVII) to assess the feasible cost of obtaining additional information from Consultant X services. The research resulted in the best decision for PT. X is to propose a funding plan and have the business transformation by 74.7% probabilities of expected value greater than to execute existing business decision alternative. The EVII simulation concluded that the most feasible cost for Consultant X service is on the range of 2,000,000,000 - 2,391,000,000 with probability of 47.4%. Hence, the cost offered by Consultant X for their service of 4.5 billion rupiah is not financially feasible.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Decision Analysis, Business Transformation, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Bayes’ Theorem, EVII, Feasibility Analysis, Analisa Keputusan, Transformasi Bisnis, Simulasi Monte-Carlo, Teorema Bayes’, EVII, Analisa Kelayakan
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76.9 Computer algorithms. Virtual Reality. Computer simulation.
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Farindita Fardin Sinatria
Date Deposited:	14 Aug 2021 04:19
Last Modified:	14 Aug 2021 04:31
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/86196

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