Prediksi Perubahan Tutupan Lahan Pasca Pembangunan Gerbang TOL Soreang di Kecamatan Soreang, Kabupaten Bandung Menggunakan Regresi Logistik Biner

Dabukke, Andre Saputra (2021) Prediksi Perubahan Tutupan Lahan Pasca Pembangunan Gerbang TOL Soreang di Kecamatan Soreang, Kabupaten Bandung Menggunakan Regresi Logistik Biner. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Wilayah yang berubah menjadi kawasan perkotaan umumnya disertai dengan peningkatan jumlah infrastruktur untuk mendukung kebutuhan masyarakat. Hal ini dialami oleh Kecamatan Soreang yang mulai bertumbuh menjadi kawasan perkotaan serta didukung oleh infrastruktur transportasi berupa Gerbang TOL. Adanya Gerbang TOL di Kecamatan Soreang berpotensi untuk memicu perkembangan lahan di kawasan sekitarnya. Dengan adanya penelitian yang memprediksi perubahan tutupan lahan diharapkan dapat membantu pemerintah sebagai pemangku kebijakan untuk mencegah terjadinya perubahan lahan yang tidak terkendali.
Tujuan dari penelitian ini dicapai dengan menentukan variabel penentu perubahan tutupan lahan berdasarkan persepsi stakeholder, membuat model matematis perubahan tutupan lahan di Kecamatan Soreang menggunakan metode regresi logistik biner yang divalidasi menggunakan metode Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), serta membuat prediksi perubahan tutupan lahan menggunakan analisis spasial yang didukung oleh teknik validasi Confusion Matrix.
Hasil yang diperoleh dari penelitian ini adalah terdapat 14 variabel yang dinilai berpengaruh terhadap perubahan tutupan lahan di Kecamatan Soreang pasca pembangunan Gerbang TOL Soreang. Tinggi rendahnya probabilitas perubahan tutupan lahan dipengaruhi oleh jarak dari variabel – variabel tersebut. Hasil perumusan model spasial perubahan tutupan lahan menghasilkan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0,000000001858 sampai dengan 0,999804. Luasan lahan non – terbangun yang memiliki potensi untuk mengalami perubahan tutupan lahan adalah penggunaan lahan Hutan, Perkebunan, Pertanian dan Peternakan, serta Area Terbuka dengan total luasan sebesar 309,109 hektar. Selain itu terdapat potensi pelanggaran pada rencana pola ruang kawasan lindung, yakni pada Sempadan Sungai dan Perairan dengan total luasan sebesar 63,117 hektar.
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The region that has turned into urban area usually accompanied by an increasing amount of infrastructure to support public needs. This happened in Soreang District which began to grow into an urban area supported by transportation infrastructure in the form of the toll gate. The existence of the Toll Gate in Soreang District has the potential to trigger land development in the surrounding area. By research that predicts the land cover changes, it is hoped that it can help the government as a policymaker to prevent uncontrolled land changes.
The purposes of this research were achieved by identifying the determinant variables of land cover change based on stakeholder perceptions, making a mathematical model of land cover change in Soreang District by using a binary logistic regression method validated by the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) method, and making predictions of land cover change using spatial analysis supported by Confusion Matrix validation technique.
The results which were obtained from this study, there were 14 variables that were considered to affect land cover change in Soreang District after the development of the Soreang Toll Gate. The high-and-low possibility of land cover change was influenced by the distance of these variables. The results of the formulation of the spatial model of land cover change produce a probability value from 0,000000001858 to 0,999804. The non – built land which had potential to experience land cover change were forest, plantation, agriculture and animal husbandry, and open land with a total area of 309,109 hectares. While the potential violations in spatial pattern plans were River Borders and Waters with a total area of 63,117 hectares.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Gerbang TOL, Prediksi Perubahan Tutupan Lahan, Regresi Logistik Biner, TOLL Gate, Land Cover Change Prediction, Binary Logistic Regression.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races > HT133 City and Towns. Land use,urban
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Regional & Urban Planning > 35201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Andre Saputra Dabukke
Date Deposited:	16 Aug 2021 12:55
Last Modified:	16 Aug 2021 12:55
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/87332

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