Azzahra, Nada Fitriani (2021) Kontrol Optimal Penyebaran COVID-19 Model SEIR di Jakarta. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Penyakit COVID-19 adalah penyakit menular yang disebabkan oleh jenis coronavirus baru yaitu Sars-CoV-2 yang masuk ke Indonesia dan pertama kali terdeteksi di Jakarta. Hingga Juli 2020, kasus positif COVID-19 di Jakarta menjadi penyumbang kasus positif terbanyak di Indonesia. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa penyebaran COVID 19 semakin meningkat dan perlu penanganan yang lebih maksimal. Oleh karena itu, dalam tugas akhir ini dibahas tentang pemberian kontrol yang optimal untuk mengendalikan penyebaran COVID-19 di Jakarta dengan model SEIR. Model yang digunakan merupakan hasil pengembangan dari model yang sudah ada. Salah satu upaya yang dapat dilakukan untuk mengontrol penyebaran COVID-19 adalah dengan melakukan testing. Testing dilakukan pada populasi exposed dengan tujuan dapat mengurangi penyebaran COVID-19 di Jakarta. Kemudian menentukan kontrol optimal menggunakan Prinsip Maksimum Pontryagin dan diselesaikan secara numerik berdasarkan metode Forward-Backward Sweep Runge-Kutta orde empat. Dari analisis simulasi, didapat bahwa dengan melakukan testing pada populasi exposed yang mengakibatkan berkurangnya jumlah populasi exposed sebesar 99% sehingga dapat mengurangi penyebaran COVID-19 di Jakarta.
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COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a new type of
coronavirus, namely Sars-CoV-2, which entered Indonesia and
was first detected in Jakarta. Until July 2020, positive cases of
COVID-19 in Jakarta were the largest contributor to positive
cases in Indonesia. This shows that the spread of COVID-19
is increasing and requires maximum handling. Therefore, in
this final project, we discuss the provision of optimal control
to control the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta using the SEIR
model. The model used is the result of the development of
an existing model. One of the efforts that can be done to
control the spread of COVID-19 is by doing testing. Testing
was carried out on the exposed population with the aim of
reducing the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta. Then determine
the optimal control using Pontryagin Maximum Principle and
solve numerically based on the fourth order Forward-Backward
Sweep Runge-Kutta method. From the simulation analysis, it
was found that doing testing on the exposed population reduced
the population of exposed by 99% so as to reduce the spread of
COVID-19 in Jakarta.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | COVID-19, model SEIR, Prinsip Maksimum Pontryagin, SEIR model, Pontryagin Maximum Principle. |
| Subjects: | Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q180.55.M38 Mathematical models Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA372.B9 Differential equations--Numerical solutions. Runge-Kutta formulas--Data processing. Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA614.8 Differentiable dynamical systems R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA644.C67 COVID-19 (Disease) |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Nada Fitriani Azzahra |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Aug 2021 06:00 |
| Last Modified: | 30 Aug 2021 06:00 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/89659 |
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