Analisis Prediksi Covid-19 Dan Kebijakan Pemerintah Menggunakan Sir Model: Studi Kasus Covid-19 Di Dki Jakarta

Akbar, Ahnan Naufal Fadlil (2022) Analisis Prediksi Covid-19 Dan Kebijakan Pemerintah Menggunakan Sir Model: Studi Kasus Covid-19 Di Dki Jakarta. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 09211950094003-Master_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 April 2024. Download (1MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Corona Virus Disease biasa disebut dengan singkatan COVID-19 merupakan penyakit yang telah melanda dunia pada satu tahun terakhir sehingga dikategorikan sebagai pandemi. COVID-19 merupakan virus yang mengganggu alat fungsi pernafasan manusia penderita penyakit ini akan mengalami gangguan pernafasan dan memiliki risiko lebih besar pada pasien yang memiliki riwayat kardiovaskular, diabetes, penyakit pernapasan kronis, dan kanker. COVID-19 menyebar melalui tetesan air liur atau cairan yang keluar saat batuk maupun bersin dari orang yang terinfeksi. Pemerintah Indonesia terutama DKI Jakarta tidak tinggal diam dalam menghadapi pandemi yang sedang terjadi di Indonesia adapun tindakan yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah adalah mengeluarkan kebijakan berupa Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB), Pemberlakuan pembatasan kegiatan masyarakat (PPKM), dan Vaksinasi. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan cara menggambarkan penyebaran COVID-19 di DKI Jakarta menggunakan model SIR (Suspected, Infectious, Recovered) dan mengkaji pengaruh kebijakan pemerintah dalam penyebaran tersebut. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan kebijakan vaksinasi memiliki pengaruh dalam menurunkan jumlah pasien terinfeksi COVID-19 di DKI Jakarta pada outbreak kedua yang terjadi selama masa pandemi. Hasil simulasi SIR model terhadap kasus COVID-19 menunjukkan kasus COVID-19 berakhir pada hari 886 sejak terjadi kasus pertama ditemukan COVID-19 di DKI Jakarta. Efek dari vaksin dapat menurunkan jumlah pasien terinfeksi namun tidak menghilangkan kasus dengan catatan vaksin yang didapatkan sesuai dengan varian dari penyakit secara spesifik
======================================================================================================
Corona Virus Disease which is commonly referred to by the abbreviation COVID-19 is a disease that has hit the world in the past year so it is categorized as a pandemic. COVID-19 is a virus that interferes with human respiratory function, sufferers of this disease will experience respiratory problems and have a greater risk in patients who have a history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer. COVID-19 is spread through droplets of saliva or fluids that come out when coughing or sneezing from an infected person. The Indonesian government, especially DKI Jakarta, is not standing still in the face of the pandemic that is happening in Indonesia, while the actions taken by the government are issuing policies in the form of Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB), Enforcement of Restrictions on Community Activities (PPKM), and vaccinations. This research was conducted by describing the spread of COVID-19 in DKI Jakarta using the SIR (Suspected, Infectious, Recovered) model and examining the influence of government policies on the spread. The results of this study indicate that vaccination policy has an influence in reducing the number of patients infected with COVID-19 in DKI Jakarta in the second outbreak that occurred during the pandemic. The SIR model simulation results for COVID-19 cases show that COVID-19 cases ended on day 886 since the first case of COVID-19 was found in DKI Jakarta. The effect of the vaccine can reduce the number of infected patients but does not eliminate cases provided the vaccine is obtained according to the variant of the specific disease.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	COVID-19, Kebijakan pemerintah, SIR Model
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA644.C67 COVID-19 (Disease)
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Technology Management > 61101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Ahnan Naufal Fadlil Akbar
Date Deposited:	10 Feb 2022 03:26
Last Modified:	31 Oct 2022 01:40
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/93275

Actions (login required)

View Item