Cauchy Cluster Process Untuk Memodelkan Risiko Gempa Bumi Di Sumatera Dengan Mempertimbangkan Regularisasi Ridge

Kartikasari, Yuniar Mega (2022) Cauchy Cluster Process Untuk Memodelkan Risiko Gempa Bumi Di Sumatera Dengan Mempertimbangkan Regularisasi Ridge. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pulau Sumatera adalah salah satu wilayah di Indonesia yang rawan terhadap gempabumi. Kondisi ini dikarenakan geografisnya yang dilalui oleh sesar aktif, zona subduksi, dan gunung berapi. Pada penelitian ini, persebaran gempabumi di Sumatera dimodelkan dengan mempertimbangkan efek spatial trend yang disebabkan oleh keberadaan zona subduksi, sesar aktif, dan gunung berapi dan efek cluster yang disebabkan aktivitas mainshock dan aftershocks menggunakan inhomogeneous Cauchy cluster process. Pada pemodelan spatial trend, terdapat indikasi bahwa terjadi multikolinearitas ditandai dengan korelasi yang tinggi antar faktor geografis, sehingga penelitian ini mempertimbangkan regularisasi ridge untuk mengatasi hal tersebut. Hasil eksplorasi data menunjukkan bahwa gempabumi di Sumatera tidak homogen dan membentuk cluster yang disebabkan karena faktor geologis seperti keberadaan gunung berapi, zona subduksi, dan sesar aktif. Pemodelan intensitas gempabumi dengan regularisasi ridge menghasilkan nilai AIC sebesar -2280648 yang mana lebih kecil daripada model tanpa regularisasi. Model Cauchy cluster dengan mempertimbangkan regularisasi ridge menghasilkan estimasi jumlah gempabumi utama sebanyak 63 dengan standar deviasi gempabumi susulan disekitar gempabumi utama sebesar 17,685 km. Semakin dekat suatu lokasi ke sesar aktif, risiko terjadinya gempabumi di lokasi tersebut meningkat 1,6972 kali. Semakin dekat suatu lokasi ke zona subduksi, risiko terjadinya gempabumi di lokasi tersebut meningkat sebesar 1,25899 kali, dan semakin dekat suatu lokasi ke gunung berapi risiko terjadinya gempabumi di lokasi tersebut meningkat sebesar 1,55910 kali.
Kata Kunci: spatial trend, faktor geologis, multikolinearitas, intensitas, risiko.
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Sumatra Island is one of the areas in Indonesia that is prone to
earthquakes. This condition is due to the geography that is traversed
by active faults, subduction zones, and volcanoes. In this study, the
distribution of earthquakes in Sumatra is modeled by considering the
effects of spatial trends caused by the presence of subduction zones,
active faults, and volcanoes and cluster effects caused by mainshock
and aftershock activities using the inhomogeneous Cauchy cluster
process. In spatial trend modeling, there are indications that there is
multicollinearity characterized by a high correlation between
geographical factors, so this study considers ridge regularization to
overcome this. The results of data exploration show that the
earthquakes in Sumatra are not homogeneous and form clusters
caused by geological factors such as the presence of volcanoes,
subduction zones, and active faults. Earthquake intensity modeling
with ridge regularization produces an AIC value of -2280648 which
is smaller than the model without regularization. Cauchy cluster
model by considering ridge regularization produces an estimated
number of 63 main earthquakes with a standard deviation of
aftershocks around the main earthquake of 17.685 km. The closer a
location is to an active fault, the risk of an earthquake occurring at
that location increases by 1.6972 times. The closer a location is to a
subduction zone, the risk of an earthquake occurring at that location
increases by 1.25899 times, and the closer a location is to a volcano,
the risk of an earthquake at that location increases by 1.55910 times.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	spatial trend, faktor geologis, multikolinearitas, intensitas, risiko,spatial trend, geological factors, multicollinearity, intensity, risk
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis Q Science > QE Geology > QE538.8 Earthquakes. Seismology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Yuniar Mega Kartikasari
Date Deposited:	22 Feb 2022 02:02
Last Modified:	01 Nov 2022 00:48
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/94696

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