Analisis Persamaan Simultan Spasial Persentase Penduduk Miskin Dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Di Provinsi Jawa Timur

Salsabiila, Nur Jihan (2022) Analisis Persamaan Simultan Spasial Persentase Penduduk Miskin Dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya.

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Abstract

Kemiskinan merupakan ketidakmampuan seseorang dalam memenuhi standar hidup minimum sehingga mampu menghambat kesejahteraan individu. Tolak ukur kesejahteraan adalah Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) dengan tiga indeks yaitu harapan hidup, pendidikan dan standar hidup layak. Persentase penduduk miskin dan IPM maupun sebaliknya memiliki hubungan yang saling mempengaruhi (two way relationship) sehingga dilakukan pemodelan dengan sistem persamaan simultan dan diduga terdapat pengaruh spasial antar wilayah, karena jika dilihat dari segi kewilayahan di provinsi Jawa Timur menunjukkan adanya kesamaan pada nilai persentase penduduk miskin dan IPM di wilayah yang saling bertetangga. Model persamaan simultan spasial yang digunakan adalah metode Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares (GS2SLS) dan matriks bobot yang digunakan adalah queen contiguity. Data yang digunakan adalah persentase penduduk miskin dan IPM serta variabel-variabel dari penelitian terdahulu yang diduga secara signifikan mempengaruhi kemiskinan dan IPM. Data cross section di 38 Kabupaten/Kota di Jawa Timur pada tahun 2019. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa IPM berpengaruh signifikan terhadap persentase penduduk miskin dan persentase penduduk miskin juga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap IPM, hal ini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan timbal balik yang negatif antara persentase penduduk miskin dan IPM. Efek spasial bersifat positif dan signifikan pada variabel IPM dengan pemodelan GS2SLS Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) yang memiliki koefisien determinasi sebesar 84,34% sedangkan pada variabel persentase penduduk miskin efek spasial tidak signifikan sehingga dimodelkan dengan Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) dan menghasilkan koefisien determinasi sebesar 74,7%. Pada persamaan kemiskinan laju pertumbuhan PDRB yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap persentase penduduk miskin dan menunjukkan elastisitas tertinggi sebesar 1,262 persen, sedangkan pada persamaan IPM secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh kepadatan penduduk dan elastisitas tertinggi ditunjukkan oleh variabel persentase penduduk miskin sebesar 0,601
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Poverty is a person's inability to meet the minimum standard of living so that it can hinder individual welfare. The benchmark for welfare is the Human Development Index (HDI) with three indices, namely life expectancy, education and a decent standard of living. The percentage of poor people and HDI and vice versa have a two-way relationship so that modeling is carried out using a simultaneous equation system and it is suspected that there is a spatial influence between regions, because if viewed from a regional perspective in East Java province, it shows that there is a similarity in the percentage value of the poor. and HDI in neighboring areas. The spatial simultaneous equation model used is the Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares (GS2SLS) method and the weight matrix used is queen contiguity. The data used are the percentage of poor people and HDI as well as variables from previous studies that are suspected to significantly affect poverty and HDI. Cross section data in 38 regencies/cities in East Java in 2019. The results show that the HDI has a significant effect on the percentage of the poor and the percentage of the poor also has a significant effect on the HDI, this indicates that there is a negative reciprocal relationship between the percentage of the poor and HDI. The spatial effect is positive and significant on the HDI variable with the GS2SLS Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) modeling which has a coefficient of determination of 84,34% while the variable percentage of the poor population has no significant spatial effect so it is modeled with Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) and produces a coefficient of determination by 74,7%. In the poverty equation, the GRDP growth rate has a significant effect on the percentage of poor people and shows the highest elasticity of 1,262 percent, while in the HDI equation it is significantly influenced by population density and the highest elasticity is indicated by the percentage variable of the poor population of 0,601

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Additional Information:	RSSB 519.53 Sal a-1
Uncontrolled Keywords:	2SLS, GS2SLS, IPM, Jawa Timur, Kemiskinan, Queen Qontiguity, Simultan Spasial
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	EKO BUDI RAHARJO
Date Deposited:	08 Dec 2022 07:39
Last Modified:	08 Dec 2022 07:39
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/95192

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