Peramalan Tingkat Penghunian Kamar (TPK) Hotel Bintang di Propinsi Bali Menggunakan Model ARIMAX dengan Variabel Intervensi Fungsi Step

Ramadlana, Aulia Rahmah (2023) Peramalan Tingkat Penghunian Kamar (TPK) Hotel Bintang di Propinsi Bali Menggunakan Model ARIMAX dengan Variabel Intervensi Fungsi Step. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Bali merupakan salah satu destinasi wisata indonesia yang diminati oleh wisatawan domestik dan wisatawan mancanegara karena memiliki daya tarik berupa alam dan budaya sebagai obyek wisata utama. Bali menyediakan tempat penginapan hotel berbintang salah satunya hotel bintang lima, dimana hotel bintang lima memiliki fasilitas yang lebih baik dan lengkap dibandingkan hotel bintang satu, dua, tiga, dan empat. Semenjak adanya pandemi COVID-19 di Indonesia pada awal bulan Maret 2020 jumlah wisatawan domestik dan mancanegara yang datang ke Bali turun secara signifikan sehingga berdampak pada Tingkat Penghunian Kamar (TPK) hotel bintang lima. Menurut BPS Bali, pada bulan Maret 2020 TPK hotel bintang lima di Bali menunjukkan penurunan dibandingkan bulan Februari. Pada bulan Maret 2020 yaitu sebesar 22,15% dimana lebih rendah daripada bulan Februari 2020 yaitu 45,32%. Dalam penelitian ini dilakukan peramalan TPK hotel bintang lima menggunakan model ARIMAX dengan variabel intervensi adanya pandemi COVID-19. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model intervensi fungsi step terbaik untuk meramalkan TPK hotel bintang lima di Bali adalah model dengan orde b, s, r (0,1,1) ARIMA ([1,12],0,0) yang menyatakan bahwa TPK hotel bintang lima pada waktu ke-t dipengaruhi TPK hotel bintang lima pada 1 bulan, 2 bulan, 12 bulan serta 13 bulan sebelumnya dan dipengaruhi adanya COVID-19 pada waktu ke-t, 1 bulan, 2 bulan, 12 bulan, dan 13 bulan sebelumnya. Hasil ramalan TPK hotel bintang lima di Bali pada periode Agustus 2022 sampai Desember 2023 diperkirakan cenderung meningkat daripada tahun 2021, dimana TPK hotel bintang lima tertinggi terjadi pada bulan Juli 2023 dan terendah terjadi pada bulan Februari 2023.
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Bali is one of Indonesia's tourist destinations that is in great demand by domestic and foreign tourists because it has attractions in the form of nature and culture as the main tourist objects. Bali provides accommodation for star hotels, one of which is five star hotels, where five star hotels have better and more complete facilities than one, two, three and four star hotels. Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit Indonesia in early March 2020, the number of domestic and foreign tourists coming to Bali has dropped significantly, which has had an impact on the Room Occupancy Rate (TPK) of five-star hotels. According to BPS Bali, in March 2020 the TPK of five-star hotels in Bali showed a decrease compared to February. In March 2020, it was 22.15%, which was lower than in February 2020, which was 45.32%. In this study, the TPK forecast for five-star hotels was carried out using the ARIMAX model with the intervention variable due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results showed that the best step function intervention model for predicting the TPK of five-star hotels in Bali was a model with order b, s, r (0,1,1) ARIMA ([1,12],0,0) which stated that the TPK for star hotels five at time t is affected by the TPK of five-star hotels at 1 month, 2 months, 12 months and 13 months previously and affected by the presence of COVID-19 at time t, 1 month, 2 months, 12 months and 13 months previously. The TPK forecast for five-star hotels in Bali in the period August 2022 to December 2023 is expected to tend to increase compared to 2021, where the highest TPK for five-star hotels will occur in July 2023 and the lowest will occur in February 2023.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMAX, Hotel Bintang Lima, Intervensi, Peramalan, TPK, Five Star Hotels, Intervention, Forecasting
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Aulia Rahmah Ramadlana
Date Deposited:	22 Feb 2023 08:55
Last Modified:	22 Feb 2023 08:55
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/97669

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