Konseptual Model Evaluasi Risiko Instalasi Sistem Zona Kamar Mesin Dengan Integrasi Metode Bayesian Network Dan System Dynamics

Baroroh, Intan (2023) Konseptual Model Evaluasi Risiko Instalasi Sistem Zona Kamar Mesin Dengan Integrasi Metode Bayesian Network Dan System Dynamics. Doctoral thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Permasalahan keterlambatan delivery kapal dari galangan ke pemilik kapal masih sering ditemui. Berdasarkan histori pembangunan kapal baru, proses yang memiliki porsi terbesar pada durasi pembangunan kapal adalah proses penyelesaian engine room/kamar mesin. Adapun proses penyelesaian kamar mesin memiliki alokasi 76% dari total durasi pembangunan kapal. Hal ini menjadi sangat penting ketika beberapa bagian konstruksi dan peralatan penting pada kamar mesin diantaranya adalah konstruksi pondasi motor induk, motor bantu, sistem pelayanan motor induk dan motor bantu, serta permesinan lain yang saling terintegrasi. Dilihat dari jenis pekerjaannya, pekerjaan zona kamar mesin juga tergolog rumit dan banyak meliputi machinery outfitting, outfitting manufacture, accomodation outfitting dan electrical outfitting. Kompleksnya pekerjaan instalasi zona kamar mesin ini ditambah dengan ketidaksesuaian jadwal pengadaaan dan pembangunannya berimplikasi pada peningkatan biaya produksi dan waktu penyelesaian. Keterlambatan waktu penyelesaian akan berdampak pada risiko denda keterlambatan sampai dengan pembatalan kontrak oleh pemilik kapal. Melihat potensi risiko yang besar pada pembangunan zona kamar mesin ini, maka studi ini adalah bertujuan untuk menciptakan konseptual model evaluasi risiko menggunakan integrasi Bayesian Network (BN) dan system Dynamics (SD) pada instalasi zona kamar mesin. Metode ini merupakan gabungan metode BN dan SD mempunyai kelebihan mampu menghitung peluang terjadinya risiko dan mengukur dampak pada sistem yang kompleks dengan baik jika dibandingkan dengan BN dan SD yang berdiri sendiri. Berdasarkan kajian yang telah dilakukan, penerapan evaluasi risiko menggunakan integrasi BN dan SD mampu memberikan enam strategi mitigasi terpilih dengan effisiensi biaya mitigasi 94%.
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The problem of late delivery of ships from shipyards to shipowners is still often encountered. Based on the history of new shipbuilding, the process that has the largest portion of the shipbuilding duration is the engine room / engine room completion process. The engine room completion process has an allocation of 76% of the total shipbuilding duration. This becomes very important when some important construction parts and equipment in the engine room include the construction of the foundation of the main motor, auxiliary motor, service system of the main motor and auxiliary motor, and other integrated machinery. Judging from the type of work, the work of the engine room zone is also complicated and includes a lot of machinery outfitting, outfitting manufacture, accomodation outfitting and electrical outfitting. The complexity of the engine room zone installation work coupled with the mismatch of procurement and construction schedules has implications for increasing production costs and completion times. Delays in completion time will have an impact on the risk of late fees up to the cancellation of the contract by the shipowner. Considering the potential risks in the construction of the engine room zone, this study aims to create a conceptual risk evaluation model using the integration of Bayesian Network (BN) and System Dynamics (SD) in the installation of the engine room zone. This method is a combination of BN and SD methods that has the advantage of being able to calculate the chances of risk occurrence and measure the impact on complex systems well when compared to stand-alone BN and SD. Based on the study, the application of risk evaluation using the integration of BN and SD was able to provide six selected mitigation strategies with a mitigation cost efficiency of 94%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Kamar Mesin, Penilaian Risiko, Bayesian Network, System Dynamics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36001-(S3) PhD Theses
Depositing User:	Intan Baroroh
Date Deposited:	19 May 2023 07:17
Last Modified:	19 May 2023 07:17
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/97942

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