Peramalan Harga Bawang Merah Di Tiga Lokasi Di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive

Wandira, Lidwina Galuh (2023) Peramalan Harga Bawang Merah Di Tiga Lokasi Di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Bawang merah menjadi salah satu komoditi yang memiliki peran penting bagi perekonomian di Indonesia. Banyak petani bawang merah khususnya pada daerah-daerah sentra produksi yang menggantungkan perekonomian mereka dari hasil usahatani bawang merah. Harga bawang merah di Indonesia selama tahun 2010-2022 cukup berfluktuasi. Hal ini disebabkan oleh permintaan bawang merah cenderung terus meningkat setiap saat, sementara produksi bawang merah bersifat musiman dan pendistribusian tidak merata. Fluktuatifnya harga bawang merah dan biaya usahatani bawang merah yang sangat besar mengakibatkan risiko dan ketidakpastian bagi petani. Oleh karena itu, dibutuhkan peramalan yang tepat dan efisien. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan peramalan harga bawang merah di tiga lokasi di Indonesia menggunakan data sekunder yang didapatkan melalui website PIHPS Nasional. Data yang digunakan berupa data mingguan harga bawang merah sejak minggu pertama Januari 2019 hingga minggu keempat Juli 2022. Metode peramalan yang digunakan adalah Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive (GSTAR). Hasil dari model terbaik untuk meramalkan harga bawang merah di tiga lokasi di Indonesia yaitu Cirebon, Tegal, dan Madiun berdasarkan nilai RMSE yaitu model GSTAR(31)-I(1) menggunakan bobot normalisasi invers jarak. Hasil peramalan harga bawang merah tertinggi di Cirebon, Tegal, dan Madiun terjadi pada minggu pertama Agustus 2022. Sedangkan harga bawang merah terendah di Cirebon dan Madiun terjadi pada minggu kelima Agustus 2022, namun harga bawang merah terendah di Tegal terjadi pada minggu keempat Agustus 2022. Pola pergerakan harga bawang merah di Cirebon, Tegal, dan Madiun selama 14 periode kedepan masih terus berfluktuasi namun cenderung menunjukkan tren penurunan. Hal tersebut disebabkan oleh beberapa daerah memasuki masa panen, sehingga terjadi lonjakan hasil panen yang bersamaan. Akibatnya hasil panen bawang merah di tiga lokasi tersebut melimpah dan menyebabkan harga bawang merah pun mengalami penurunan.
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Shallots are one of the commodities that have an important role for the economy in Indonesia. Many shallot farmers, especially in production centers, depend on their economy from the results of onion farming. The price of shallots in Indonesia during 2010-2022 fluctuated quite a bit. This is because the demand for shallots tends to continue to increase all the time, while onion production is seasonal and distribution is uneven. The fluctuating price of shallots and the huge cost of onion farming have resulted in risks and uncertainties for farmers. Therefore, precise and efficient forecasting is needed. In this study, onion price forecasting carried out in three locations in Indonesia using secondary data obtained through the National PIHPS website. The data used is in the form of weekly data on shallot prices from the first week of January 2019 to the fourth week of July 2022. The forecasting method used is Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive (GSTAR). The results of the best model for forecasting shallot prices in three locations in Indonesia based on RMSE values are the GSTAR(31)-I(1) model using distance inverse weights. The results of forecasting the highest shallot prices in Cirebon, Tegal, and Madiun occurred in the first week of August 2022. While the lowest shallot price in Cirebon and Madiun occurred in the fifth week of August 2022, but the lowest shallot price in Tegal occurred in the fourth week of August 2022. The pattern of shallot price movements in Cirebon, Tegal, and Madiun over the next 14 periods is still fluctuating but tends to show a downward trend. This is caused by several regions entering the harvest period, so there is a simultaneous spike in crop yields. As a result, onion yields in the three locations are abundant and cause the price of shallots to decrease.

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	GSTAR, Harga Bawang Merah, Peramalan, Forecasting, The Price of Shallot
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Lidwina Galuh Wandira
Date Deposited:	27 Jun 2023 05:35
Last Modified:	27 Jun 2023 05:35
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/98237

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