Estimasi Parameter Risiko Gempa Bumi Di Sumatera Barat Dan Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Bayesian Poisson Regression

Salim, Muhammad Ridho (2023) Estimasi Parameter Risiko Gempa Bumi Di Sumatera Barat Dan Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Bayesian Poisson Regression. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Indonesia merupakan negara kepulauan yang memiliki lebih dari 17.000 pulau dengan berbagai macam keindahan dan kekayaan alam. Dibalik semua kekayaan dan keindahan alam yang dimiliki Indonesia, ternyata letak geografis yang dimiliki Indonesia menjadi penyebab bencana gempa bumi sering kali terjadi di Indonesia sepanjang tahun. Seluruh kawasan Indonesia terletak di daerah cincin api pasifik (Ring of Fire) yang merupakan suatu kawasan paling sering terjadi gempa bumi. Sumatera Barat dan Sumatera Utara yang berada di Pulau Sumatera menjadi 2 dari Provinsi di Indonesia yang paling sering terjadi gempa. Tingginya potensi terjadi gempa mengisyaratkan pentingnya upaya dalam menghadapi dampak negatif akibat terjadinya gempa, salah satunya yaitu melakukan analisis untuk membantu pemerintah dan masyarakat dalam upaya pencegahan dampak buruk gempa bumi terutama didaerah rawan gempa bumi. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan analisis untuk melihat hubungan antara magnitude dan frekuensi terjadinya gempa di Sumatera Barat dan Sumatera Utara menggunakan Poisson Regression serta memprediksi kemungkinan terjadinya gempa di Sumatera Barat dan Sumatera Utara menggunakan hasil dari poisson regression berbasis Bayesian. Hasil analisis memperlihatkan bahwa metode poisson regression lebih baik dibandingkan generalized poisson regression berdasarkan nilai Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) terkecil, sehingga analisis bayesian yang dilakukan berdasarkan model poisson regression. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa magnitudo memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap frekuensi gempa bumi. Kemungkinan risiko kejadian gempa bumi di Sumatera Barat dan Sumatera Utara menghasilkan penjelasan bahwa kedua Provinsi tersebut memiliki kemungkinan terjadi gempa bumi yang cukup tinggi untuk kategori gempa sedang, merusak dan besar dalam rentang waktu 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, dan 100 tahun. Pada Provinsi Sumatera Barat gempa bumi dengan magnitudo 5,5 memiliki kemungkinan risiko terjadinya gempa bumi paling tinggi yaitu sebesar 0,62973 dalam 1 tahun, dari perhitungan periode ulang gempa bumi didapat bahwa gempa dengan magnitudo 5,5 di Sumatera Barat akan terjadi lagi dalam kurun waktu sekitar 367 hari. Sedangkan pada Provinsi Sumatera Utara gempa bumi dengan magnitudo 4,8 memiliki kemungkinan risiko terjadi paling tinggi yaitu sebesar 0,98206 dalam 1 tahun, dari perhitungan periode ulang didapat bahwa gempa dengan magnitudo 4,8 di Sumatera Utara akan terjadi lagi dalam kurun waktu sekitar 90 hari.
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Indonesia is an archipelagic country that has more than 17,000 islands with various kinds of beauty and natural wealth. Behind all the wealth and natural beauty that Indonesia has, it turns out that Indonesia's geographical location is the cause of frequent earthquakes in Indonesia throughout the year. The entire area of Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire (Ring of Fire), which is an area where earthquakes occur most frequently. West Sumatra and North Sumatra which are on the island of Sumatra are 2 of the provinces in Indonesia that experience the most frequent earthquakes. The high potential for earthquakes to occur indicates the importance of efforts to deal with negative impacts due to earthquakes, one of which is conducting an analysis to assist the government and the community in efforts to prevent the adverse effects of earthquakes, especially in earthquake-prone areas. In this study an analysis will be carried out to see the relationship between the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes in West Sumatra and North Sumatra using Poisson Regression and predicting the likelihood of earthquakes occurring in West Sumatra and North Sumatra using the results of Bayesian-based Poisson regression. The results of the analysis show that the Poisson regression method is better than generalized Poisson regression based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value, so that Bayesian analysis is carried out based on the Poisson regression model. The results of this study indicate that the magnitude has a negative effect on the frequency of earthquakes. The possibility of an earthquake in West Sumatra and North Sumatra resulted in an explanation that the two provinces have a fairly high probability of an earthquake occurring for the medium, damaged and large earthquake categories in the timeframe of 1, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. In the Province of West Sumatra, an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.5 has the highest possible risk of an earthquake occurring, its worth 0.62973 in 1 year. From the calculation of the return period of the earthquake, it is found that an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.5 in West Sumatra will will happen again in a period of about 367 days. Whereas in North Sumatra Province an earthquake with a magnitude of 4.8 has the highest possible risk of occurring, its worth 0,98206 in 1 year, from the calculation of the return period it is found that an earthquake with a magnitude of 4.8 in North Sumatra will occur again within 90 days.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Bayesian, Gempa bumi, Poisson Regression, Sumatera Barat, Sumatera Utara, Earthquake, North Sumatera, Poisson Regression, West Sumatera.
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA279.5 Bayesian statistical decision theory.
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Actuaria > 94203-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Muhammad Ridho Salim
Date Deposited:	17 Jul 2023 02:10
Last Modified:	17 Jul 2023 02:10
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/98479

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