Sumirat, Eliza Lintang (2023) Analisis Deteksi Kecurangan Laporan Keuangan Perusahaan Perbankan Menggunakan Metode Regresi Data Panel dan Teorema Bayes dengan Pendekatan Fraud Hexagon Theory. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Laporan keuangan merupakan komponen penting bagi perusahaan karena menyangkut kepercayaan dan penilaian publik terhadap perusaahan. Menyajikan laporan keuangan yang relevan, andal, mudah dipahami dan dapat dipertanggungjawabkan sudah adalah suatu keharusan bagi perusahaan. Namun, dalam realitanya banyak terdapat praktik kecurangan pada laporan keuangan atau fraudlent financial statement yang dilakukan oleh manajemen perusahaan dengan motif atau faktor yang berbeda-beda. Tindakan ini tentu dapat merugikan beberapa pihak, salah satunya adalah investor yang ingin menanamkan modalnya pada perusahaan tersebut. Sehubungan dengan pengambilan keputusan oleh investor yang ingin menanamkan modal, maka diperlukan tindakan preventif agar tidak terjerumus pada laporan keuangan yang telah dimanipulasi. Tindakan preventif tersebut salah satunya adalah dengan melakukan deteksi dini. Oleh karena itu, pada penelitian ini dilakukan analisis deteksi kecurangan laporan keuangan dengan menggunakan Regresi Data Panel dan Teorema Bayes berdasarkan nilai dari Beneish M-Score Model serta faktor penyebab fraudlent financial statement yang dianalisis dengan pendekatan fraud hexagon theory. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini merupakan data laporan keuangan tahunan perusahaan perbankan yang terdaftar pada Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2019-2021. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan M-Score didapatkan 41 dari total 90 sampel penelitian terdeteksi sebagai perusahaan yang melakukan manipulasi laporan keuangan, sedangkan 49 sampel sisanya tidak. Dengan pendekatan fraud hexagon theory dan metode regresi data panel, didapatkan variabel Total Accrual to Asset (TATA) berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap fraudlent financial statement, sedangkan variabel Leverage Ratio, Director Change, Quality of External Auditor, Auditor Change, CEO Duality dan perusahaan BUMN yang memiliki proyek dengan pemerintah tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap model. Kemudian dari hasil perhitungan probabilitas dengan teorema bayes didapatakan faktor yang berpotensi paling tinggi menyebabkan fraudlent financial statement adalah Auditor Change.
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Financial statement is an important component for companies as they involve public trust and assessment of the company. Presenting relevant, reliable, easy to understand, and accountable financial statement is a necessity for companies. However, in reality, there are many fraudulent practices in financial statements carried out by company management with different motives or factors. These actions can harm various parties, including investors who want to invest in the company. In relation to the decision-making process of investors who want to invest, preventive measures are needed to avoid being trapped in manipulated financial statements. One of these preventive measures is early detection. Therefore, this study analyzes the detection of financial statement fraud using Panel Data Regression and Bayes Theorem based on the values from the Beneish M-Score Model, as well as the factors causing fraudulent financial statements analyzed through the fraud hexagon theory approach. The data used in this study are the annual financial statements of banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2019-2021. Based on the M-Score calculation results, 41 out of 90 research samples were detected as companies that manipulated their financial statements, while the remaining 49 samples were not. Using the fraud hexagon theory approach and the panel data regression method, it was found that the Total Accrual to Asset (TATA) variable significantly affects fraudulent financial statements, while variables such as Leverage Ratio, Director Change, Quality of External Auditor, Auditor Change, CEO Duality, and State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) with government projects do not have a significant impact on the model. Furthermore, the calculation of probabilities using Bayes Theorem indicated that the factor with the highest potential to cause fraudulent financial statements is Auditor Change
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Banking, Bayes Theorem, Beneish M-Score, Fraud Hexagon Theory, Panel Data Regression, Perbankan, Regresi Data Panel, Teorema Bayes |
| Subjects: | Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q180.55.M38 Mathematical models Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA279.5 Bayesian statistical decision theory. |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Actuaria > 94203-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Eliza Lintang Sumirat |
| Date Deposited: | 27 Jul 2023 01:52 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Jul 2023 01:52 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/99898 |
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