Peramalan Jumlah Kedatangan Wisatawan Mancanegara Di Indonesia Melalui Pintu Masuk Bandar Udara Ngurah Rai Bali Menggunakan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins

Endartyana, Ratih Yulika (2017) Peramalan Jumlah Kedatangan Wisatawan Mancanegara Di Indonesia Melalui Pintu Masuk Bandar Udara Ngurah Rai Bali Menggunakan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Sektor Pariwisata di Indonesia telah memberikan kontribusi yang besar terhadap kehidupan perekonomian di negeri ini salah satunya sebagai komoditi ekspor yang tidak bisa dilihat secara nyata, namun terus meningkatkan peran dalam perekonomian Indonesia. Kementrian Budaya dan Pariwisata memiliki taget kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara di Indonesia tahun 2015 dapat meningkat sebanyak 10 juta pengunjung tiap tahun. Peramalan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan di Indonesia sangat dibutuhkan bagi pelaku bisnis pariwisata serta dapat meningkatkan penerimaan devisa suatu negara, Sehingga perlu dilakukan suatu peramalan pada jumlah wisatawan mancanegara di Indonesia terutama melalui pintu masuk Bandar Udara Ngurah Rai Bali sebagai pintu masuk dengan kedatangan wisatawan terbesar di Indonesia. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik untuk meramalkan jumlah kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara di Indonesia adalah ARIMA ========================================================= ========================================================= Tourisms sector in Indonesia has a major contribution to the economic in this country each one as an export commodity that can’t be seen, but it continues to enhance the role of the Indonesian economy. Ministry of Culture and Tourism has taget tourist arrivals in Indonesia on 2015 could increase by 10 million visitors each year. Forecasting the number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia is necessary for tourism businesses and increase the revenue of a country, so we need to prediction the number of foreign tourists in Indonesia through the entrance of the Ngurah Rai Airport Bali as the entrance to the tourist arrival in Indonesia. The analysis showed that the best model to predict the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia is ARIMA ([11], 1.1). Keywords : Box-Jenkins ARIMA, Travelers, Abroad.

Item Type: Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords: ARIMA Box-Jenkins, Wisatawan, Mancanegara.
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GV Recreation Leisure
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49401-(D3) Diploma 3
Depositing User: RATIH YULIKA ENDARTYANA
Date Deposited: 26 May 2017 03:46
Last Modified: 05 Mar 2019 01:48
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/41375

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