Sari, Fefy Dita (2016) Identifikasi Wilayah Kantong Penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) dengan Flexibly Shaped Spatial Scan Statistic melalui Pemodelan Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (Studi Kasus Jumlah Kasus DBD di Jawa Timur). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Menurut Laporan Profil Kesehatan Jawa Timur tahun 2013, Jawa Timur adalah provinsi dengan jumlah kejadian luar biasa (KLB) DBD tertinggi di Indonesia dengan angka kematian masih di bawah target yakni 1,04 persen. Dalam penelitian ini dilakukan pendeteksian wilayah kantong penyakit DBD dengan Flexibly Shaped Spatial Scan Statistic. Untuk melakukan pendeteksian tersebut dibutuhkan nilai ramalan jumlah kasus DBD di setiap kabupaten. Nilai ramalan dapat diperoleh dengan melakukan pemodelan melalui GWNBR. Hasil penelitian dengan pembobotan Fix Gaussian diperoleh 2 kelompok wilayah yang dikelompokkan berdasarkan variabel yang signifikan. Kelompok 1 adalah kelompok dengan variabel signifikan persentase rumah tangga berperilaku hidup bersih dan sehat sedangkan kelompok 2 tidak terdapat variabel yang signifikan. Hasil Flexibly Shaped Spatial Scan Statistic menunjukkan bahwa terdapat dua belas kantong DBD. Daerah paling rawan yaitu Kota Surabaya yang memiliki nilai resiko relatif sebesar 3,16. Daerah dengan resiko terbesar kedua yakni Kabupaten Bondowoso dan Kabupaten Jember dengan resiko relatif sebesar 2,10. Kabupaten dengan resiko relatif tertinggi ketiga yakni Kabupaten Sampang dengan resiko relatif 1,92.
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According to the East Java Health Profile Report on 2013, East Java province is province with highest extraordinary events of DHF in Indonesia with case fatality rate is still below the target of 1.04 percent. In this study the detection of risk regional of DHF performed by using Flexibly Shaped Spatial Scan Statistic method. Forecast value of DHF cases in each district is needed to perform the detection. Forecast value can be obtained by doing modelling through GWNBR. The study result using Fixed Gaussian weighting shows that there are two groups region grouped by the significant variables. 1st group is a group with a significant variable is percentage of households with clean and healthy behaviour while the second group there are no significant variables. Result of Flexibly Shaped Spatial Scan Statistic shows that there are twelve risk region of DHF. The most vulnerable area is Surabaya city, which has relative risk value 3.16. The second vulnerable area are Bondowoso and Jember district with a relative risk of 2.10. District with the third highest relative risk is Sampang with a relative risk of 1.92.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.536 Sar i |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | DBD, Flexibly Shaped Spatial Scan Statistic, GWNBR |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Users 13 not found. |
| Date Deposited: | 12 Jun 2017 07:20 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Dec 2018 07:39 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/41604 |
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