Pemodelan Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kriminalitas Pencurian Motor Di Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline

Hidayat, Rahmawati Maisaroh (2015) Pemodelan Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kriminalitas Pencurian Motor Di Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Provinsi Jawa Timur, menurut reka mabes Polri tahun 2014 diketahuitindak kriminalitas tertinggi terjadi di wilayah hukum Polda Jawa Timur (Jatim) yakni Jatim 39 (kejadian), Jateng 16, Polda Metro 14, Polda Sulsel 10, dan Polda Bali 11. Berdasarkan data Badan Pusat Statistik mengenai jumlah kejahatan yang terjadi pada tahun 2014, pencurian motor menduduki urutan pertama jumlah kejahatan yang paling banyak terjadi. Penelitian ini menggunakan lima variabel yang diduga mempengaruhi kriminalitas “Pencurian Motor”. Data yang digunakan adalah data pada tahun 2013 yang diambil di BPS Jatim. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kriminalitas “Pencurian Motor”, memiliki pola tertentu (nonparametrik) sehingga pemodelan terbaik adalah regresi nonparametrik. dengan pendekatan spline dengan titik knot optimum didapatkan dengan metode Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Berdasarkan hasil analisis didapatkan variabel yang signifikan terhadap model yakni variabel kepadatan penduduk, angka partisipasi kasar (APK) SMA, persentase penduduk miskin, jumlah pengangguran dan luas geografis. Model regresi spline tersebut menghasilkan koefisien determinasi sebesar 97,28%. ======================================================================================================================== East Java province, according to the National Police headquarters in 2014 they are known criminality occurred in the jurisdiction in East Java Police (East Java) Java ie 39 (events), Central 16, Police 14, South Sulawesi Police 10, and 11. According to the Bali Police Agency Central Bureau of Statistics on the number of criminalitys that occurred in 2014, motorcycle theft ranked first number of the most common criminalitys. This study uses five variables suspected to affect criminality "Theft of Motorcycle". The data used is data in 2013 were taken in East Java BPS. Factors that influence criminality "Theft Motorcycle", has a specific pattern (nonparametric) so that the best modeling for criminality "Theft Motorcycle" is a nonparametric regression. with using spline with knots optimum point obtained by the method of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Based on the analysis we found significant variables to the model that the population density variable, gross enrollment rate (GER) SMA, the percentage of poor, the number of unemployed and geographical area. The spline regression models yield determination coefficient of 97.28%.

Item Type: Thesis (Diploma)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.536 Hid p
Uncontrolled Keywords: GCV, Kriminalitas, Pencurian Motor, Provinsi Jawa Timur, Regresi Nonparametrik, Spline, GCV, Criminality, Theft Motorcycle, East Java Province, Regression Nonparametric, Spline
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49401-(D3) Diploma 3
Depositing User: ansi aflacha
Date Deposited: 23 Mar 2018 08:23
Last Modified: 24 Aug 2018 03:09
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/51628

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