Yunita, Dina Widya (2018) Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani Di Jawa Timur Menggunakan ARIMA Box Jenkins. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Daya beli merupakan kemampuan membayar untuk memperoleh barang yang diperlukan. Salah satu indikator untuk mengukur daya beli pada sektor pertanian yaitu Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP). NTP merupakan rasio antara indeks harga yang diterima petani (Id) dengan indeks harga yang dibayar petani (Ib). Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) digunakan untuk mengukur daya tukar/daya beli pendapatan petani terhadap pengeluaran petani. NTP dari waktu ke waktu diharapkan selalu mengalami kenaikan, akan tetapi pada periode 2013 – 2017di Provinsi Jawa Timur kondisi NTP mengalami fluktuasi. ARIMA merupakan analisis data berbasis time series yang digunakan untuk meramalkan data pada masa depan. Untuk menggambarkan kondisi NTP pada masa yang akan datang dilakukan peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani dimasa mendatang dan dapat dijadikan sebagai masukan dalam pengambilan keputusan pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Timur guna meningkatkan indeks Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Data yang digunakan yaitu data Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Hasil Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani yang paling tinggi terjadi pada bulan November 2018, sedagkan nilai peramalan yang paling rendah terjadi pada bulan Mei 2018. Model terbaik untuk meramalkan Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) di Provinsi Jawa Timur adalah ARIMA (0,1[1,6])(0,0,1)12.
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Purchasing power is the ability to pay to obtain the required goods. One indicator to measure purchasing power in agriculture sector is Farmer’s Terms of Trade (FTT). FTT is the ratio between the price index received by the farmer (Id) and the price index paid by the farmer (Ib). Farmer’s Terms of Trade (FTT) is used to measure farmer's income / purchasing power to farmer expenditure. FTT from time to time is expected to always increase, but in the period 2013 - 2017 in East Java Province FTT became very fluctuate. ARIMA is a time series data analysis used to forecast data in the future. To illustrate the future condition of FTT, the forecasting of Farmer’s Terms of Trade in the future can be used as input in decision making of East Java Provincial Government to increase the index of Farmer’s Terms of Trade (FTT) in East Java Province. The data used are Farmer’s Terms of Trade (FTT) data in East Java Province. The Highest Farm Forecasting Forecast Results occurred in November 2018, as the lowest forecasting value occurred in May 2018. The best model to predict the index of Farmer’s Terms of Trade (FTT) in East Java Province is ARIMA (0,1[1,6])(0,0,1)12.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Diploma) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ARIMA , Nilai Tukar Petani, Time Series |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) > H61.4 Forecasting in the social sciences H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics |
| Depositing User: | Dina Widya Yunita |
| Date Deposited: | 16 Jul 2021 00:08 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Jul 2021 00:08 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/55672 |
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