Pemodelan Persentase Peserta KB Aktif Metode Kontrasepsi Jangka Panjang (MKJP) Di Provinsi Jawa Timur Menggunakan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated

Pramitasari, Novalia Dwita (2018) Pemodelan Persentase Peserta KB Aktif Metode Kontrasepsi Jangka Panjang (MKJP) Di Provinsi Jawa Timur Menggunakan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pemakaian Metode Kontrasepsi Jangka Panjang (MKJP) pada peserta KB aktif di Provinsi Jawa Timur sebagai cara mengatur kehamilan sebanyak 1,75 juta jiwa lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan pemakaian non-MKJP yang mencapai 4,35 juta jiwa. MKJP merupakan alat/cara kontrasepsi yang efektif dan efisien dipakai dalam jangka waktu lama untuk tujuan menjarangkan kehamilan atau mengakhiri kehamilan pada pasangan yang sudah tidak ingin menambah anak lagi. Sedangkan peserta KB aktif merupakan akseptor Pasangan Usia Subur (PUS) usia 15-49 tahun yang saat ini sedang menggunakan salah satu alat/cara kontrasepsi. Faktor-faktor yang diduga berpengaruh tidak membentuk suatu pola tertentu, sehingga menggunakan metode regresi nonparametrik spline truncated. Model terbaik diperoleh dari titik knot optimum berdasarkan nilai Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) minimum. Lima variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan yaitu persentase perempuan usia 15-49 tahun berstaus kawin memiliki anak masih hidup lebih dari dua, persentase perempuan usia 35 tahun keatas berstatus kawin, persentase perempuan usia 15-49 tahun berstatus kawin pernah menggunakan alat/cara KB, persentase perempuan usia 15-49 tahun berstatus kawin yang bekerja, dan persentase perempuan usia 15 tahun keatas berstatus kawin dengan usia kawin pertama kurang dari 19 tahun. Pemodelan terbaik dengan GCV paling minimum pada tiga titik knot atau kombinasi titik knot (3,3,3,3,3) sebesar 31,91. Nilai R2 yang dihasilkan model sebesar 90,69%. ==============================================================================================The use of Long-Term Contraceptive Methods on active family planning participant in East Java as a way to regulate pregnancy about 1,75 million people is lower than non Long-Term Contraceptive Methods that reach 4,35 million people. Long-Term Contaceptive Method is an effective and efficient tools or methods of contraception used for long periods to enabling pregnancy or termination of pregnancy in couple who do not want to add more children. The active family planning participant is a fertile age couple with the age of 15-49 years who is currently using one of tools or methods of contraception. Factors that are suspected to influence do not form a certain pattern, so used nonparametric spline truncated regression method. The best model is obtained from the minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value. Five variables that have a significant effect, which are percentage of women aged 15-49 years married status have children more than two, the percentage of women aged 35 years married status, the percentage of women aged 15-49 years married status never use tools or methods of family planning, the percentage of women aged 15-49 years married status has a job, and the percentage of women aged more than 15 years married status with the first marriage age of less than 19 years. The best modeling with minimum GCV at three knot points or combination of knot point (3,3,3,3,3) is 31,91. The value of R2 generated by the model is 90.69%.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Generalized Cross Validation, Metode Kontrasepsi Jangka Panjang, Peserta KB Aktif, Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated, Titik Knot
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA29 Theory and method of social science statistics
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.35 Analysis of variance
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation
H Social Sciences > HQ The family. Marriage. Woman
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics, Computation, and Data Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Novalia Dwita Pramitasari
Date Deposited: 18 Jul 2021 21:43
Last Modified: 18 Jul 2021 21:43
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/57217

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