Pemodelan Persamaan Simultan Dengan Metode Pendugaan Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) Untuk Permintaan Ekspor Tuna Indonesia Di Pasar Internasional

Wismaningsih, Prih (2019) Pemodelan Persamaan Simultan Dengan Metode Pendugaan Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) Untuk Permintaan Ekspor Tuna Indonesia Di Pasar Internasional. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Tuna merupakan komoditas ekspor perikanan tangkap terbesar di Indonesia setelah udang. Dari seluruh hasil perikanan tangkap di laut pada tahun 2015, sekitar 13,64 persen adalah ikan dari keluarga tuna. Mengingat potensi tersebut, menjadi penting untuk menganalisa faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan ekspor tuna Indonesia di pasar internasional. Analisis dilakukan dengan melihat karakteristik permintaan ekspor dari negara-negara pengimpor terbesar seperti Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Jepang, untuk kemudian membuat suatu pemodelan pendugaan dengan menggunakan metode three stage least square (3SLS). Model Permintaan ekspor tuna ke pasarinternasional menggunakan 5 variabel endogen dan 14 variabel eksogen, hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pendugaan produksi tuna dipengaruhi oleh jumlah kapal, dan jumlah tenaga kerja. Pendugaan untuk model permintaan tuna domestik dipengaruhi secara signifikan pendapatan nasional. Pendugaan harga tuna domestik secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh produksi tuna. Pendugaan model permintaan ekspor tuna ke Amerika Serikat dipengaruhi oleh pajak dan permintaan tahun sebelumnya sedangkan pendugaan permintaan ekspor ke Jepang dipengaruhi oleh produksi tuna dan harga salmon. ================================================================================================ Tuna is the largest export commodity of capture fisheries in Indonesia after shrimp. Around 13.64 per cent of all the production of Indonesian capture fisheries at sea in 2015 were fish from the tuna’s family. Because of this important potential, it is essential to analyse the factors that influence the demand for Indonesian tuna exports in the international market. The analysis was carried out by looking at the characteristics of export demand from the largest importing countries such as the United States (US) and Japan, with a system of simultaneous equation approaches. The method used is Three-Stage Least Square (3SLS) method. The model of tuna export demand to the internarional market uses five endogenous variab les and 14 exogenous variables, the analysis results are as follows the estimation of tuna production is influenced by the number of fishing vessels and the number of workers. The estimation of domestic tuna demand is significantly influenced by national income of Indonesia, while the domestic tuna’s price is influenced by tuna production. The estimation of the US’ export demand for tuna is influenced by the demand of tuna in the previous year, while Japan’s export demand for tuna is influenced by salmon prices and tuna production’s.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Additional Information: RTSt 512.942 6 Wis p-1 2019
Uncontrolled Keywords: Ekspor tuna, three-stage least squares, persamaan simultan, una exports, simultaneous equation
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > Economic forecasting--Mathematical models.
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry)
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.3 Structural equation modeling.
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Wismaningsih Prih
Date Deposited: 06 Jan 2022 08:25
Last Modified: 06 Jan 2022 08:25
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/61946

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