Peramalan Inflow Dan Outflow Bulanan Uang Kartal Bank Indonesia Menurut Efek Bencana Alam Dengan Model Time Series (Studi Kasus Bencana Alam Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta)

Ramadhasari, Jehana (2015) Peramalan Inflow Dan Outflow Bulanan Uang Kartal Bank Indonesia Menurut Efek Bencana Alam Dengan Model Time Series (Studi Kasus Bencana Alam Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknology Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Uang adalah alat pembayaran bagi pembelian barang-barang dan jasa-jasa serta kekayaan berharga. Selain itu, uang merupakan suatu benda yang berfungsi sebagai alat tukar, alat penyimpan nilai, dan satuan hitung. Pada penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan inflow dan outflow bulanan uang kartal pada Bank Indonesia khususnya BI Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta yang mengacu pada studi kasus bencana alam di Yogyakarta seperti gunung meletus dan gempa bumi. Metode peramalan semakin berkembang yaitu salah satunya metode ARIMA, Regresi Time Series, ARIMAX Variasi Kalender, dan Fungsi Transfer. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berupa data inflow dan outflow bulanan uang kartal yang diperoleh dari BI wilayah Yogyakarta selama 12 tahun periode Januari 2003 sampai dengan Desember 2014. Karakteristik inflow dan outflow uang kartal Bank Indonesia Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta dipengaruhi oleh adanya variasi kalender yang disebabkan perayaan tahunan Hari Raya Idul Fitri. Selain itu, juga terdapat efek musiman dari bulan-bulan tertentu serta kebijakan-kebijakan baru yang ditetapkan oleh Bank Indonesia. Model yang terpilih berdasarkan hasil perbandingan RMSE outsample adalah pada data inflow dan outflow adalah model ARIMAX variasi kalender. ====================================================================================================== Money is a tool of payment for the purchase of goods and services as well as precious wealth. In addition, money is an object that serves as a medium of exchange, a store of value and unit of account. The aims of this study is to predict monthly inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia, especially BI Yogyakarta refers to a case study in Yogyakarta natural disasters such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Recently, many forecasting methods already developed by many researches such as ARIMA, Regression Time Series, ARIMAX Variations Calendar, and Transfer Function methods. The data used is secondary data monthly inflow and outflow of currency derived from BI Yogyakarta region during the 12-year period January 2003 to December 2014. The characteristics of the inflow and outflow of currency Bank Indonesia Yogyakarta Special Region is affected by the variations caused by calendar celebration the annual Eid al-Fitr. In addition, there are also seasonal effects of certain months as well as new policies set by Bank Indonesia. The results show that the best model for forecasting the inflow and outflow data in BI Yogyakarta is ARIMAX calender variations model.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 511.526 Ram p
Uncontrolled Keywords: ARIMA, ARIMAX Variasi Kalender, Fungsi Transfer, Inflow Outflow, Regresi Time Series.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Mr. Tondo Indra Nyata
Date Deposited: 25 Nov 2019 04:28
Last Modified: 25 Nov 2019 04:28
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/72017

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