Analisis Sensitivitas dan Probabilitas Kejadian Batas-Batas Penerimaan Investasi Apartemen Tower Caspian, Grand Sungkono Lagoon, Surabaya

Albertino, Mohammad Ryan Rama (2020) Analisis Sensitivitas dan Probabilitas Kejadian Batas-Batas Penerimaan Investasi Apartemen Tower Caspian, Grand Sungkono Lagoon, Surabaya. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Iklim Investasi di Indonesia mengalami perlambatan, salah sektor yang mengalami perlambatan adalah sektor apartemen. Salah satu daerah dengan tingkat perlambatan iklim investasi apartemen yang tinggi adalah Surabaya. Kondisi tersebut menciptakan ketidakpastian pada investasi apartemen dan dapat memberikan pengaruh buruk dalam segi ekonomi. Mengetahui ketidakpastian investasi sektor apartemen merupakan salah satu langkah guna mereduksi dampak buruk yang mungkin terjadi. Pendekatan yang bisa dilakukan adalah (1) Pendekatan dengan Metode Analisis Sensitivitas untuk mengetahui batas-batas minimum dari penerimaan investasi. (2) Pemahaman probabilitas kejadian batas-batas penerimaan investasi guna mengukur frekuensi terjadinya faktor tersebut. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan analisis investasi proyek didapatkan Net Present Value bernilai positif yaitu sebesar Rp 32.914.655.086 (NPV >0) Nilai Internal Rate of Return yaitu sebesar 20,21% dengan MARR sebesar 10,34% (IRR>MARR).Dengan analisis sensitivats, didapatkan batas kenaikan bunga pinjaman tidak lebih 5,4%, penurunan pendapatan tidak lebih 5,5 %, peningkatan biaya investasi tidak lebih besar 7%, peningkatan MARR tidak lebih 10,8 %, penurunan penjualan tipe 2 tidak lebih besar 12,65%, tipe 1 tidak lebih besar 15 %, tipe 3 tidak lebih besar 20% dan peningkatan biaya operasional tidak lebih besar 120%. Dari sensitivitas terhadap IRR, didaptkan variabel dengan sensitivitas tertinggi adalah (1) kenaikan bunga pinjaman dengan batas 5,4 % memiliki probabiltas 53%, (3) penurunan pendapatan dengan batas 5,5% memiliki probabiltas 40%, (2) kenaikan biaya investasi dengan batas 7% memiliki probabiltas 40%. ====================================================================================================================== Investment climate in Indonesia is decreasing year to year, one of the sector that impacted is apartment sector. One of the most decrease region in apartment growth is Surabaya. The investment climate in Surabaya is decreasing year to year. The condition conduct a uncertainty on investment apartment and give bad influence in the context of economy to the shareholder who involved. Understanding the uncertainty who influence the investment of apartment is one of the way to reduce the worst result who could happen. Therefore, understanding the uncertainty could be done by aware of the factor who influence the investment. Methodology that could be done by (1) Sensitivity analysis to understand the investment acceptance constraint and (2) The probability of investment acceptance constraint to measure frequency of the event to be happened. Based on the calculation results of the project investment analysis obtained Net Present Value is positive, equal to Rp 32.914.655.086.(NPV >0). The value of Internal Rate of Return is equal to 20,21% with MARR equal to 10,34% (IRR>MARR). With sensitivity analysis, the project with a limit on loan interest increase of not more than 5.4%, decreasing income of not more than 5.5%, increasing investment cost not more than 7%, increasing MARR not more than 10.8%, decreasing type of sales 2 no bigger 12.65%, type 1 no bigger 15%, type 3 no bigger 20% and increase in operational costs no bigger 120%. From the sensitivity to IRR, obtained the variable with the highest sensitivity is (1) an increase in loan interest with a limit of 5.4% has a probability of 53%, (3) a decrease in income with a limit of 5.5% has a probability of 40%, (2) an increase in investment costs with a limit of 7% has a probability of 40%.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Analisis Sensitivitas, Apartemen, Investasi, Probabilitas Batas Penerimaan
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis
H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4910 Investments
Divisions: Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: M. RYAN RAMA A.
Date Deposited: 25 Aug 2020 04:40
Last Modified: 25 Aug 2020 04:40
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/80369

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