Apriliadara, Meriska (2014) Peramalan Hirarki Penjualan Tiap Jenis Sepeda Motor Di Kabupaten Jember Dan Lumajang Menggunakan Metode Arimax. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Sepeda motor merupakan salah satu produk yang mempunyai
perkembangan yang pesat saat ini. Berdasarkan Asosiasi Industri
Sepeda Motor Indonesia, Provinsi Jawa Timur menduduki peringkat
tertinggi sebagai penjualan sepeda motor. Penjualan sepeda motor
secara tidak langsung dipengaruhi oleh indikator Indeks Pembangunan
Manusia (IPM). Sementara pada Provinsi Jawa Timur terdapat bebera-
pa daerah yang mempunyai IPM terendah. Daerah-daerah tersebut
disebut dengan wilayah Tapal Kuda. Penelitiaan ini akan meramalkan
penjualan sepeda motor jenis Cub, Matic, dan Sport di dua wilayah
Tapal Kuda yang mempunyai karakteristik yang sama yaitu Kabupaten
Jember dan Lumajang. Peramalan penjualan tahunan sepeda motor
menggunakan metode regresi linier, menghasilkan bahwa penjualan
tahunan sepeda motor di Kabupaten Jember dan Lumajang secara sig-
nifikan dipengaruhi oleh PDRB per kapita. Sementara untuk peramalan
penjualan bulanan tiap jenis sepeda motor, selain menggunakan metode
ARIMAX, digunakan pula peramalan hirarki berdasarkan metode top-
down. Hal tersebut dilakukan untuk mengatasi pola dari penjualan
sepeda motor jenis Cub di kedua Kabupaten yang cenderung menurun
dan beresiko menghasilkan penjualan yang negatif. Hasil dari pera-
malan bulanan tiap jenis sepeda motor di Kabupaten Jember dan
Lumajang, menunjukkan bahwa peramalan hirarki mem- punyai nilai
sMAPE lebih kecil yang artinya peramalan hirarki lebih baik diban-
dingkan dengan hasil ramalan langsung ARIMAX.
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Motorcycle is one of the products that has a rapid development this
century. Based on information from “Asosiasi Industri Sepeda Motor
Indonesia”, East Java Province is ranked as the highest sales of
motorcycles. Motorcycle sales are not directly affected by the indicators
of the Human Development Index (HDI). While in East Java Province,
there are some areas that have the lowest HDI. These areas are called
the “Tapal Kuda” area. This research will predict the type of motor-
cycle sales such as Cub, Matic, and Sport in two “Tapal Kuda” area
that have the same characteristics which are Jember and Lumajang.
Forecasting annual sales of motorcycles using the linear regression
method, it’s known that annual sales of motorcycles in Jember and
Lumajang significantly influenced by GDP per capita. While forecasting
monthly sales of each type of motorcycle, not only using ARIMAX
method but also hierarchy forecasting based on top-down method. When
the pattern of Cub-type motorcycle sales in the two districts that tend to
decrease and at risk of negative sales, then this can be explained by
using this method. The results of the monthly forecasting each type of
motorcycle in Jember and Lumajang indicate that hierarchy forecasting
has a smaller sMAPE value, it means that the result of hierarchy fore-
casting is better than the direct forecast of ARIMAX.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.55 Apr p 3100014056760 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Sepeda motor; regresi linier; ARIMAX; peramalan hirarki |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > Economic forecasting--Mathematical models. |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics, Computation, and Data Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Yeni Anita Gonti |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Dec 2020 03:54 |
| Last Modified: | 30 Dec 2020 03:54 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/82349 |
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