Peramalan Volume Penjualan Sepeda Motor Di Kabupaten Trenggalek Dengan Menggunakan Metode Arimax Dan Anfis

Kurniawan, I Made Bayu (2014) Peramalan Volume Penjualan Sepeda Motor Di Kabupaten Trenggalek Dengan Menggunakan Metode Arimax Dan Anfis. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya.

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Abstract

Dewasa ini transportasi merupakan sektor yang sangat penting bagi masyarakat dunia termasuk Indonesia. Salah satu sarana transportasi yang paling banyak disukai masyarakat adalah sepeda motor. Dalam pasar sepeda motor Indonesia, sepeda motor merk “X” selalu menjadi market leader. PT. “C” sebagai distributor sepeda motor merk “X” berupaya untuk menguasai pangsa pasar sepeda motor di Jawa Timur khususnya di Kabupaten Trenggalek dengan strategi pemasaran berbasis peramalan. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan metode ARIMAX dan ANFIS dalam meramalkan total market sepeda motor per jenis di Kabupaten Trenggalek baik dengan ataupun tanpa pendekatan disagregasi.. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ramalan dengan disagregasi ternyata lebih baik daripada ramalan tanpa disagregasi. Peramalan terbaik untuk total market sepeda motor bebek menggunakan model ANFIS dengan fungsi Gbell. Peramalan terbaik untuk total market sepeda motor matic menggunakan model ARIMAX (0,0,[2,13]) (1,0,0)12. Peramalan terbaik untuk total market sepeda motor sport menggunakan model ARIMAX ([1,12],0,[2,6]) ================================================================================================= Today the transportation sector is very important for people around the world, including Indonesia. One of the favorite vehicle is motorcycle. In the Indonesian market, motorcycle “X” always become a market leader. PT. “C” as motorcycle “X” distributor company, try to control the motorcycle market share in East Java, especially in Trenggalek district. In order to achieve its goal, PT. “C” needs forecasting of future total market. Therefore, this study aimed to compare ARIMAX and ANFIS methods in forecasting the total market of motorcycle by types in Trenggalek district. The comparison also applied to the forecast results before and after its disaggregated. The results showed that forecast model with disaggregation approach is better than forecast model without disaggregation. The best forecasting for the total market cub is using ANFIS model with Gbell function. The best forecasting for the total market matic is using ARIMAX (0,0,[2,13])(1,0,0)12. The best forecasting for the total market sport is using ARIMAX ([1,12],0,[2,6])

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.535 Kur p
Uncontrolled Keywords: Total Market, ARIMAX, ANFIS, Disagregasi
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: EKO BUDI RAHARJO
Date Deposited: 07 Jan 2021 01:23
Last Modified: 07 Jan 2021 01:24
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/82368

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