Peramalan Total Market Sepeda Motor dan Total Penjualan Motor “X” di Propinsi Jawa Timur dengan Pendekatan Model ARIMA Box-Jenkins dan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Input (ARIMAX)

Rahayuningtyas, Novita Dwi (2014) Peramalan Total Market Sepeda Motor dan Total Penjualan Motor “X” di Propinsi Jawa Timur dengan Pendekatan Model ARIMA Box-Jenkins dan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Input (ARIMAX). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya.

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Abstract

Pertumbuhan penduduk di Jawa Timur berdampak pada meningkatnya kebutuhan transportasi. Salah satu transportasi yang banyak digunakan yaitu sepeda motor dikarenakan transportasi ini lebih murah dan efisien. Tentunya peningkatan penjualan sepeda motor memberikan keuntungan bagi produsen. Di Jawa Timur, distributor utama sepeda motor “X” adalah PT. “Y”. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan penjualan sepeda motor “X” dan total market sepeda motor di Jawa Timur, sehingga dapat diperkirakan market share penjualan sepeda motor “X” periode berikutnya. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah ARIMA Box-Jenkins dan ARIMA dengan input variansi kalender. Dalam penelitian ini, data yang digunakan yaitu data total market sepeda motor dan penjualan “X” di Jawa Timur. Data terbagi menjadi dua, yaitu in-sample periode Januari 2003 sampai dengan Desember 2013 serta data out-sample periode Januari 2014 sampai dengan Maret 2014. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik total market sepeda motor yaitu ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 dan penjualan sepeda motor “X” di Jawa Timur yaitu model ARIMA ([1,13],1,0)(1,1,0)12 dikarenakan memiliki nilai sMAPE terkecil berdasarkan out-sample ==================================================================================================== Population growth in East Java have an impact on the growing transportation needs. Motorcycle as one of the most useful transportation because it gives more value such as cheaper and more efficient in the future. Actually, the increased of total sales motorcycle gives benefit to manufacturer. In East Java, the main distributor of motorcycle “X” is PT.”Y”. This research purposed to forecast total sales of motorcycle “X” and total market of motorcycle in East Java, in order that estimated market share of total sales motorcycle “X” next period. The method to forecast total sales motorcycle “X” and total market is ARIMA Box-Jenkins and ARIMAX with calendar variation involved. In this research, the data used about the number of total market and total sales motorcycle “X” in East Java. The Data divided as in-sample, from January 2003 until December 2013 and data outsample from period January 2014 until March 2014. The conclusion of analysis, the best model for modeling and forecasting of total market is ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and total sales motorcycle “X” in East Java is ARIMA model with model ([1,13],1,0)(1,1,0)12. These models have the minimum of sMAPE value according to out-sample data.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.53 Rah p
Uncontrolled Keywords: ARIMA Box-Jenkins, ARIMAX, Total Market, Total Penjualan Motor “X”
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics, Computation, and Data Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: EKO BUDI RAHARJO
Date Deposited: 07 Jan 2021 01:44
Last Modified: 07 Jan 2021 01:44
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/82369

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