Analisa Sensitivitas Untuk Mengetahui Prospek Investasi Jalan Tol : Studi Kasus Proyek Jalan Tol Krian – Legundi – Bunder – Manyar (Klbm)

Hartoyo, Yusuf (2020) Analisa Sensitivitas Untuk Mengetahui Prospek Investasi Jalan Tol : Studi Kasus Proyek Jalan Tol Krian – Legundi – Bunder – Manyar (Klbm). Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

COVID-19 merupakan virus yang telah dinyatakan sebagai pandemi oleh WHO, dan di indonesia sendiri menetapkan COVID-19 sebagai bencana nasional melalui Keputusan Presiden Nomor 12 Tahun 2020. Sumber utama transmisi dari virus ini berasal dari percikan pernapasan atau droplet yang salah satu pencegahan penyebarannya adalah dengan penggunaan masker. Saat ini, pemerintah sedang memberlakukan new normal. Walaupun beraktivitas di lingkungan luar, protokol kesehatan wajib diikuti dan seluruh masyarakat harus disiplin dalam menjalaninya. Pada tugas akhir ini dirancang sebuah sistem otomatis pendeteksi wajah bermasker menggunakan deep learning dalam menjalankan fungsinya. Sistem yang dirancang menggabungkan model deep learning, detektor wajah, dan program tracking dan counting menjadi sebuah sebuah sistem otomatis yang dibantu oleh Graphic User Interface (GUI) serta sebuah perangkat alarm dan platform Internet of Things dalam pemakaiannya. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian yang dilakukan mengikuti batasan masalah yang telah dirumuskan, model memiliki tingkat akurasi klasifikasi pada dataset test sebesar 99%. Implementasi pada Raspberry Pi 4 menunjukkan sistem berbasis model deep learning yang telah dibuat sukses melakukan deteksi, tracking dan counting yang datanya dikirimkan kepada alarm yang dirancang dan sebuah platform IoT, Ubidots. Performa deteksi maksimal dicapai saat objek deteksi bergerak 0,7 m/s, pencahayaan ≥ 100 lux, dan penggunaan modul TensorFlow Lite pada sistem dengan akurasi sebesar 85,7%. Hasil perbandingan dengan metode deteksi lain menunjukkan karakterisasi model deep learning memiliki akurasi deteksi sebesar 82%, lebih tinggi dari metode Haar classifier dengan akurasi 53% walaupun waktu proses yang dilakukan lebih lama 23% dalam menjalankan fungsi sistem ====================================================================================================== PT Waskita Bumi Wira as highway corporation (BUJT) invested in KrianLegundi-Bunder-Manyar toll road using viability gap fund (VGF) scheme. According to the Toll Road Concession Agreement Contract (PPJT) in 2016 among BPJT-BUJT-PII had been agreed upon several accepted investment variables, those variables were: total investment = Rp12.224.389.000.000, daily traffic volume on average (LHR) = 21,874 vehicles/day, loan interest 12.5% , light vehicle toll rate = Rp1.250/km, internal rate of return on equity (IRRonEquity) = 17.64%, 14th-year payback period and net present value (NPV) = Rp 3.731.695.000.000. There are some issues happened in the construction period. They were design changes and land acquisition delayed that causing cost overrun. With 45 years concession period, inaccuracies risk of traffic growth prediction, specific and non-specific risk factors and other uncertainties greatly affect the prospects of investment. Therefore the investment need to be re-examined before it divested in 2025 by sharpening the minimum attractive rate of return (MARR) and traffic, then it should be compared with the initial business plan. Estimating divestment price also examined in this study. The assessment criteria which will be used for sensitivity analysis are NPV and IRRonEquity. The approach in determining MARR is using of MARRpremium = 15.81%. Sensitivity analysis using deterministic approach performed to obtain the boundaries of investment cost changes, land acquisition cost changes, traffic changes, and debt (syndication loan) changes to NPV on several toll rates scenarios. This research shows that NPV is very sensitive to investment cost changes. Known also that on the toll rate scenario based on PPJT the compensation fee can be given in one of the following conditions: increase of investment cost up to 7%, traffic is under 75%, increasing of debt (syndication loan) up to 9%. Stochastic analysis shows that probability of not-exceed variable changing is 37.29% to 46.56%

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords: sensitivity, IRRonEquity. MARRpremium, KLBM tollroad, stochastic
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis
T Technology > TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements
T Technology > TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements > TE7 Transportation--Planning
Divisions: Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Technology Management > 61101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User: yusuf hartoyo
Date Deposited: 26 Feb 2021 00:55
Last Modified: 26 Feb 2021 00:58
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/82888

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