Pemodelan Risiko Persebaran Kasus Terkonfirmasi COVID-19 Di Surabaya, Gresik, Dan Sidoarjo Menggunakan Model Multitype Poisson Point Process

Wahyuni, Putri (2021) Pemodelan Risiko Persebaran Kasus Terkonfirmasi COVID-19 Di Surabaya, Gresik, Dan Sidoarjo Menggunakan Model Multitype Poisson Point Process. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

COVID-19 merupakan penyakit yang menyerang sistem pernafasan. Penyumbang terbesar kasus COVID-19 di Jawa Timur hingga tanggal 9 Juli 2020 adalah kota Surabaya (68,91%), kabupaten Sidoarjo (21,49%), dan kabupaten Gresik (9,6%). Hasil uji Chi-Squared membuktikan bahwa persebaran alamat pasien terkonfirmasi positif COVID-19 pada periode pra PSBB, PSBB I, PSBB II, PSBB III, transisi, dan new normal cenderung tidak stasioner. Selain itu pada cross-type K-function diketahui bahwa data setiap periode mengikuti proses Poisson, serta antar pasangan kategori periode yang berbeda cenderung saling independen. Kemudian hasil uji signifikansi parameter model multitype Poisson point process didapatkan kesimpulan bahwa seluruh kategori periode kecuali PSBB I, serta kovariat kepadatan penduduk dan kepadatan lokasi kerumunan (pusat perindustrian dan tempat ibadah) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap risiko persebaran pasien terkonfirmasi positif COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya, sedangkan kepadatan pusat perbelanjaan tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Hasil prediksi risiko persebaran pasien terkonfirmasi positif COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya saat kebijakan periode pra PSBB hingga new normal cenderung berbeda, dimana intensitas paling tinggi terdapat pada periode new normal. ===================================================================================================== COVID-19 is a disease that attacks the human respiratory system. By July 9, 2020, Surabaya city (68.91%), Sidoarjo regency (21.49%), and Gresik regency (9.6%) contributes the most of the COVID-19 confirmed cases in East Java. The results of the Chi-Squared test proved that the distribution of COVID-19 confirmed cases in the pre-LSSR, LSSR I, LSSR II, LSSR III, transition, and new normal periods tended to be inhomogeneous. LSSR stands for Large-Scale Social Restrictions (Indonesian: PSBB or Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar). Also, the cross-type K-function shows that the data for each period follows the Poisson process, and between period categories tend to be mutually independent. The results of the multitype Poisson point process model concluded that all period categories except LSSR I, also the covariate population density and crowd location density (industrial centers and worship places), had a significant effect on the risk of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Surabaya, Gresik, and Sidoarjo, while the density of shopping centers has no significant effect. The risk prediction of the COVID-19 confirmed cases in Surabaya, Gresik, and Sidoarjo during the pre-LSSR to new normal period policies tend to be different, where the highest intensity is in the new normal period.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Chi-Squared, COVID-19, Cross-Type K-Function, Multitype Poisson Point Process, PSBB
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76.9.D33 Data compression (Computer science)
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Putri Wahyuni
Date Deposited: 05 Mar 2021 04:16
Last Modified: 05 Mar 2021 04:16
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/83517

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