Analisis Risiko Penyebaran COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya Menggunakan Inhomogeneous Thomas Cluster Process

Virania, Tiza Ayu (2021) Analisis Risiko Penyebaran COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya Menggunakan Inhomogeneous Thomas Cluster Process. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

COVID-19 menyebar cepat di Jawa Timur khususnya daerah Surabaya Raya yang memiliki jumlah pasien terkonfirmasi positif tertinggi dibandingkan kota/kabupaten lainnya di Jawa Timur. Kota Surabaya merupakan kota dengan jumlah pasien terkonfirmasi positif terbanyak dibandingkan Sidoarjo dan Gresik, dimana pada tanggal 20 Maret hingga 9 Juli 2020 68% dari jumlah kasus di Surabaya Raya merupakan kasus COVID-19 di Kota Surabaya. Hasil eksplorasi data menunjukkan bahwa data COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya tidak homogen dan cenderung membentuk kelompok. Pemodelan kasus COVID-19 dengan Inhomogeneous Thomas Cluster Process menunjukkan kepadatan pabrik dan kepadatan tempat ibadah secara signifikan mempengaruhi persebaran COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya, dimana setiap penambahan 1 pabrik dalam 1 km2 akan meningkatkan risiko COVID-19 sebanyak 2 kali lipat. Sedangkan jika dalam 1 km2 terjadi penambahan sebanyak 1 tempat ibadah maka risiko meningkatnya kasus COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya sebesar 4 kali lipat jika dibandingkan dengan tidak ada penambahan tempat ibadah. Estimasi jumlah kasus positif COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya adalah sebesar 161 kasus dengan standar deviasi kasus positif COVID-19 baru tersebar disekitar lokasi early case adalah sebesar 1,21 km. Validasi model dengan plot envelope K-Function menunjukkan bahwa Inhomogeneous Thomas Cluster Process baik digunakan untuk memodelkan data COVID-19 di Surabaya Raya pada 20 Maret 2020 hingga 9 Juli 2020. =============================================================================================== COVID-19 is spreading rapidly in East Java, especially in the Greater Surabaya area which has the highest number of confirmed positive patients compared to other cities / districts in East Java. The city of Surabaya is the city with the highest number of confirmed positive patients compared to Sidoarjo and Gresik, where from March 20 to July 9 2020 68% of the cases in Greater Surabaya were COVID-19 cases in the city of Surabaya. The results of data exploration show that the COVID-19 data in Greater Surabaya is not homogeneous and tends to form groups. Modeling the COVID-19 case with the Inhomogeneous Thomas Cluster Process shows that factory density and density of places of worship significantly affect the spread of COVID-19 in Greater Surabaya, where every addition of 1 factory in 1 km2 will increase the risk of COVID-19 by 2 times. Meanwhile, if in 1 km2 there is an addition of 1 place of worship, the risk of increasing COVID-19 cases in Greater Surabaya is 4 times compared to no addition of places of worship, so that between the two variables has a major influence on the risk of increasing positive cases of COVID-19. 19 in Surabaya Raya is the density of places of worship. The estimated number of positive cases of COVID-19 in Surabaya Raya is 161 cases with a standard deviation of new positive cases of COVID-19 scattered around the early case locations of 1.21 km. Model validation with the K-Function envelope plot shows that the Inhomogeneous Thomas Cluster Process is good for modeling COVID-19 data in Surabaya Raya from March 20, 2020 to July 9, 2020.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19, Inhomogeneous Thomas Cluster Process, Spatial Point Process, Surabaya Raya. COVID-19, Inhomogeneous Thomas Cluster Process, Spatial Point Process, Surabaya Raya.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis
Q Science > Q Science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Tiza Ayu Virania
Date Deposited: 05 Mar 2021 03:55
Last Modified: 05 Mar 2021 03:55
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/83529

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