Prediksi Indeks Standar Pencemaran Udara Di Kota Surabaya Berdasarkan Kandungan Gas Karbon Monoksida (CO)

Syaifulloh, Mohammad Ma'Arif (2021) Prediksi Indeks Standar Pencemaran Udara Di Kota Surabaya Berdasarkan Kandungan Gas Karbon Monoksida (CO). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Kota Surabaya merupakan pusat kegiatan dari berbagai sektor di kawasan Jawa Timur salah satunya yaitu sektor industri sehingga banyaknya lapangan pekerjaan yang tercipta. Hal ini yang mendorong masyarakat luar Surabaya untuk mencari pekerjaan di Kota Surabaya. Karena lapangan pekerjaan di Kota Surabaya menyebar, menimbulkan mobilitas masyarakat dimana transportasi sangat dibutuhkan untuk melakukan mobilitas. Hal ini dapat mempengaruhi kondisi kualitas udara di Kota Surabaya yang dibuktikkan dengan AQI (Air Quality Index) Air Visual pada tahun 2019, Surabaya berada di peringkat ketujuh untuk kota yang paling berpolusi dibandingkan dengan kota lainnya di Indonesia dan berada di urutan ke-226 dibandingkan kota lainnya yang ada di dunia. Sehingga dilakukan penelitian tentang prediksi indeks standar pencemaran di Kota Surabaya berdasarkan konsentrasi CO menggunakan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins dan regresi linear sederhana. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model peramalan terbaik adalah ARIMA(1,0,0) dimana model peramalan tersebut telah memenuhi asumsi residual. Hasil ramalan konsentrasi gas karbon monoksida mengalami penurunan. Model regresi yang terbentuk mampu menjelaskan keragaman data sebesar 54,6%. Berdasarkan hasil ramalan, diperoleh prediksi indeks standar pencemaran udara yang menunjukkan hasil prediksi tertinggi pada periode 1 Januari hingga 3 Januari 2021 sebesar 10,5401 dengan kategori baik.
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Surabaya city is the center of activity for various sectors in the East Java region, one of which is the industrial sector, so that created many field jobs. That is the reason why people from outside Surabaya to looking for a job in Surabaya. The field jobs in the city of Surabaya are spreading, so transportation is crucial for people mobilities. The combustion of vehicle fuel produces carbon monoxide gas it can affect air quality in Surabaya. As evidenced, in 2019, based on Air Visual AQI (Air Quality Index), Surabaya is ranked seventh for the most polluted city than other cities in Indonesia and 226th place than other cities in the world. Therefore, this study was conducted on the prediction of air pollution index in the city of Surabaya based on the content of carbon monoxide air pollution using ARIMA Box-Jenkins method and Simple linear regression. The result analysis shows that the best model is ARIMA (1,0,0), where the forecasting model has fulfilled the residual assumptions. The forecasting results shows that carbon monoxide concentration has decreased. The regression models may explain the diversity of data at 54,6%. Based on the forecasting results, shows that the highest prediction of the air pollution index is in the period of January 01 to January 03, 2021 amounted 10,5401 which is in a good category.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMA Box-Jenkins, CO, Indeks Standar Pencemaran Udara, Regresi Linier Sederhana
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mohammad Ma'Arif Syaifulloh
Date Deposited:	14 Aug 2021 13:23
Last Modified:	14 Aug 2021 13:23
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/86232

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