Kontrol Optimal Penyebaran COVID-19 Model SEIR di Jakarta

Azzahra, Nada Fitriani (2021) Kontrol Optimal Penyebaran COVID-19 Model SEIR di Jakarta. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penyakit COVID-19 adalah penyakit menular yang disebabkan oleh jenis coronavirus baru yaitu Sars-CoV-2 yang masuk ke Indonesia dan pertama kali terdeteksi di Jakarta. Hingga Juli 2020, kasus positif COVID-19 di Jakarta menjadi penyumbang kasus positif terbanyak di Indonesia. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa penyebaran COVID 19 semakin meningkat dan perlu penanganan yang lebih maksimal. Oleh karena itu, dalam tugas akhir ini dibahas tentang pemberian kontrol yang optimal untuk mengendalikan penyebaran COVID-19 di Jakarta dengan model SEIR. Model yang digunakan merupakan hasil pengembangan dari model yang sudah ada. Salah satu upaya yang dapat dilakukan untuk mengontrol penyebaran COVID-19 adalah dengan melakukan testing. Testing dilakukan pada populasi exposed dengan tujuan dapat mengurangi penyebaran COVID-19 di Jakarta. Kemudian menentukan kontrol optimal menggunakan Prinsip Maksimum Pontryagin dan diselesaikan secara numerik berdasarkan metode Forward-Backward Sweep Runge-Kutta orde empat. Dari analisis simulasi, didapat bahwa dengan melakukan testing pada populasi exposed yang mengakibatkan berkurangnya jumlah populasi exposed sebesar 99% sehingga dapat mengurangi penyebaran COVID-19 di Jakarta. ====================================================================================================== COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a new type of coronavirus, namely Sars-CoV-2, which entered Indonesia and was first detected in Jakarta. Until July 2020, positive cases of COVID-19 in Jakarta were the largest contributor to positive cases in Indonesia. This shows that the spread of COVID-19 is increasing and requires maximum handling. Therefore, in this final project, we discuss the provision of optimal control to control the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta using the SEIR model. The model used is the result of the development of an existing model. One of the efforts that can be done to control the spread of COVID-19 is by doing testing. Testing was carried out on the exposed population with the aim of reducing the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta. Then determine the optimal control using Pontryagin Maximum Principle and solve numerically based on the fourth order Forward-Backward Sweep Runge-Kutta method. From the simulation analysis, it was found that doing testing on the exposed population reduced the population of exposed by 99% so as to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19, model SEIR, Prinsip Maksimum Pontryagin, SEIR model, Pontryagin Maximum Principle.
Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q180.55.M38 Mathematical models
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA372.B9 Differential equations--Numerical solutions. Runge-Kutta formulas--Data processing.
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA614.8 Differentiable dynamical systems
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA644.C67 COVID-19 (Disease)
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Nada Fitriani Azzahra
Date Deposited: 30 Aug 2021 06:00
Last Modified: 30 Aug 2021 06:00
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/89659

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