Model Arus Kas Regime-Switching Untuk Optimalisasi Pendapatan Perusahaan Selama Masa Pandemi COVID-19 Menggunakan Metode Grey Wolf Optimizer

Julinar, Julinar (2021) Model Arus Kas Regime-Switching Untuk Optimalisasi Pendapatan Perusahaan Selama Masa Pandemi COVID-19 Menggunakan Metode Grey Wolf Optimizer. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penurunan produktivitas karyawan perusahaan manufaktur yang disebabkan adanya pandemi COVID-19 menyebabkan terganggunya arus kas atau pendapatan perusahaan tersebut. Pandemi COVID-19 menyebabkan banyak individu terinfeksi tak terkecuali karyawan perusahaan dan tidak jarang menimbulkan kematian. Hal ini membuat pemerintah membatasi kontak antar individu yang mengakibatkan kegiatan produksi pada perusahaan manufaktur menjadi terbatas. Pada Tugas Akhir ini digunakan tiga model stokastik Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Death (SIRD) untuk memodelkan penyebaran COVID-19 di Provinsi Jawa Barat. Dengan menggunakan metode grey wolf optimizer, diperoleh nilai estimasi parameter dari ketiga model stokastik dengan nilai MAPE paling kecil adalah sebesar 28,30930%. Hasil estimasi ini ditingkatkan kembali dengan upaya percobaan berulang, rata-rata lintasan, pemisahan data, optimalisasi titik, dan metode piecewise sehingga diperoleh nilai MAPE yang lebih kecil lagi yaitu sebesar 2,40256%. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi parameter tersebut selanjutnya dilakukan proyeksi kasus terinfeksi COVID-19 dalam perusahaan selama 334 hari ke masa mendatang hingga akhir tahun 2021. Proyeksi tersebut digunakan dalam perhitungan model arus kas guna menentukan pendapatan perusahaan yang diperoleh di masa mendatang. Dengan parameter biaya yang digunakan serta kurun waktu yang ditentukan, serta variasi tingkat produktivitas karyawan terinfeksi COVID-19 diperoleh nilai maksimum discounted cash flow dikurangi biaya perpindahan regime dengan menggunakan IH (mothballing threshold) sekitar 28 hingga 36 orang dan IL (reactivation threshold) sekitar 8 sampai 10 orang sebagai batas pergantian regime yang optimal. Jumlah pendapatan yang diperoleh perusahaan apabila menggunakan model arus kas regime-switching lebih tinggi dibandingkan tanpa menerapkan skema regime-switching serta perusahaan dapat menekan penyebaran COVID-19 di lingkup karyawannya. ===================================================================================================== The decline in employee productivity in manufacturing companies caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the company’s cash flow or income. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused many individuals to become infected, including company employees, and often causes death. This makes the government limiting the contact between individuals which has an impact on limited production activities in manufacturing companies. In this final project, three stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Death (SIRD) models are used to modeling the spreading of COVID-19 in Provinsi Jawa Barat. By using the grey wolf optimizer method, the estimated parameter value of the three stochastic models with the smallest MAPE value is 28,30930%. This estimation result is improved again by repeated experimentation, trajectory average, data separation, point optimization, and piecewise method in order to obtain an even smaller MAPE value of 2,40256%. Based on the results of these parameter estimates, a projection of cases of COVID-19 infection in the company is carried out for 334 days into the future until the end of 2021. This projection is used in calculating the cash flow model to determine the company’s income earned in the future. With the cost parameters used and the specified time period, as well as variations in the productivity level of employees infected with COVID-19, the maximum value of discounted cash flow is reduced by the cost of switching regime using IH (mothballing threshold) around 28 to 36 people and IL (reactivation threshold) around 8 to 10 people as the optimal regime switching limit. The amount of income obtained by the company when using the regime-switching cash flow model is higher than without implementing the regime-switching scheme and the company can suppress the spread of COVID-19 among its employees.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: estimasi, grey wolf optimizer, model stokastik SIRD, optimal, regime-switching, parameter estimation, grey wolf optimizer, SIRD stochastic model, optimal, regime-switching.
Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q180.55.M38 Mathematical models
Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q337.3 Swarm intelligence
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA274.2 Stochastic analysis
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA274.7 Markov processes--Mathematical models.
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA371 Differential equations--Numerical solutions
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User: Julinar Julinar
Date Deposited: 26 Aug 2021 14:14
Last Modified: 26 Aug 2021 14:14
URI: https://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/90599

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