Model Dinamika Sistem Peramalan Permintaan Transportasi Peti Kemas Domestik dan Perencanaan Kapasitas Terminal: Studi Kasus Terminal Berlian Surabaya

Zakaria, Bima Erza (2017) Model Dinamika Sistem Peramalan Permintaan Transportasi Peti Kemas Domestik dan Perencanaan Kapasitas Terminal: Studi Kasus Terminal Berlian Surabaya. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penggunaan Peti Kemas untuk muatan domestik diprediksi akan menjadi tren yang terus tumbuh di masa mendatang. Dan dalam realisasinya perlu adanya perencanaan yang akurat dalam menganalisis peramalan pertumbuhan permintaan terhadap transportasi muatan berkontainer melalui jalur laut. Di sisi lain, hal yang harus diperhatikan yakni bagaimana kapasitas terminal yang menampung muatan peti kemas tersebut. Pada penelitian ini dikembangkan sebuah model peramalan permintaan peti kemas domestik di Terminal Berlian yang mampu memperkirakan jumlah permintaan dan perencanaan kapasitas bongkar muat sesuai dengan strategi perencanaan kapasitas dengan pendekatan dinamika sistem. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa kombinasi produktivitas dan waktu layanan tak beroperasi bisa digunakan sebagai dasar pengambilan keputusan dalam perencanaan kapasitas dan model Dinamika Sistem bisa digunakan untuk memperkirakan permintaan dan pengembangan skenario yang fleksibel dalam perencanaan kapasitas. Dalam skenario optimistik didapat proyeksi shipcall sebesar 4039 call pada tahun 2024, atu 1.482.313 TEUS untuk permintaan peti kemas. Dalam skenario pertumbuhan ekonomi Optimistis, usaha menurunkan 10% Non Operation Time (NOT) pada Terminal Barat berpotensi menambah umur kapasitas sebesar 28% umur kapasitas dermaga barat, 24% pada dermaga utara, 5% pada dermaga timur, dan 18% pada lapangan penumpukan. Sedangkan usaha menambah 10% BCH (crane productivity) menambah umur kapasitas sebesar 77% untuk umur kapasitas semua dermaga dan lapangan penumpukan berlian.
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The uses of container for domestic cargoes is predicted to be a growing trend in the future. In its realization, it needs an accurate planning in analyzing the forecast of domestics container demand growth. On the other hand, the critical thing of that context is how to measure the capacity of berth and yard to accomodate the market growth. In this research, System Dynamics is used to design a thinking framework which is able to estimate demand and capacity of loading and unloading capacity based on the incoming market. The results of this study indicate that the combination of productivity and not operation time (NOT) can be used as the basis for decision making in capacity planning and the dynamics model. The system can be used to estimate demand and the development of flexible scenarios in capacity planning. As a result for optimistic scenario, the projected shipcall reachs 4039 call in 2024, or 1,482,313 TEUS for container demand. In an optimistic economic growth scenario, The efforts to reduce 10% Non Operation Time (NOT) at West Terminal have the potential to add a 28% lifetime capacity until it is over capacity, 24% lifetime on the north terminal, 5% lifetime on the east terminal, and 18% lifetime on the container yard. While the effort to increase 10% BCH (crane productivity) adds a lifetime capacity of 77% for the lifetime of all terminal and container yard of Terminal Berlian.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Dinamika sistem, Demand transportasi laut, Peti kemas, Domestik, Kapasitas terminal, System dynamics, Marine transport demand, Domestic container, Terminal capacity
Subjects:	T Technology > TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements > TE7 Transportation--Planning V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Transportation Engineering > 21207-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Bima Erza Zakaria
Date Deposited:	23 Oct 2017 04:50
Last Modified:	09 Jan 2018 06:59
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/47251

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