Analisis Penjadwalan Probabilistik Pada Proyek Magnum Residence Sanur

Dharmika, Made Pradipta Putra (2024) Analisis Penjadwalan Probabilistik Pada Proyek Magnum Residence Sanur. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penyelesaian proyek Magnum Residence Sanur mengalami banyak perubahan, yaitu perubahan jam kerja, alat berat, perubahan desain bangunan. Pada saat mulai pengerjaan pada bulan Agustus, jam kerja proyek dimulai pada pukul 07.00 WITA sampai dengan pukul 22.00 WITA. Namun akibat dari adanya protes dari warga setempat, proyek tersebut mengalami perubahan jam kerja menjadi pukul 07.00 WITA sampai pukul 17.00 WITA. Ketidakpastian tersebut membuat kemundaran pengerjaan pada Magnum Residence Sanur yang dari jadwal rencana ditargetkan selesai pada 29 Februari 2024. Ketidakpastian yang terjadi pada proyek harus diukur dengan melakukan penjadwalan probabilistik yang mempertimbangkan ketidakpastian tersebut. Berdasarkan latar belakang diatas, maka akan dilakukan penelitian penjadwalan probabilistik menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo. Tujuan dari penelitian yaitu mengestimasi total durasi probabilistik pada item pekerjaan proyek,menganalisis dan membandingkan durasi probabilistik dengan durasi deterministik, dan menganalisa item pekerjaan yang sering berada pada lintasan kritis dan memiliki rentang ketidakpastian yang besar. Adapun data yang diperlukan untuk penelitian ini yaitu, data primer berupa kuesioner durasi optimis, durasi paling sering terjadi dan durasi paling sering terjadi pada setiap item perkerjaan. Sedangkan data sekunder dari penelitian ini adalah time schedule serta gambar proyek Magnum Residence Sanur. Simulasi Monte Carlo pada penelitian ini akan dijalankan melalui program bantu analisis resiko. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi monte carlo dengan menggunakan progtam bantu, didapatkan total durasi probabilistik dengan persentase probabilitas keyakinan 80% sebesar 188 hari, nilai tengah (te) atau persentase probailitas penyelesain keyakinan 50% sebesar 186 hari, dan persentase probabilitas keyakinan penyelesain 100% adalah 192 hari. Sedangkan durasi deterministik proyek Magnum Residence Sanur yaitu 179 hari. Durasi deterministik berada diluar range dari durasi probabilistik hasil simulasi monte carlo. Penjadwalan deterministik yang dibuat oleh pihak kontrakor terlalu optimis,hal tersebut dapat mengakibatkan kemungkinan terjadi keterlambatan penyelesaian proyek. Dari hasil simulasi monte carlo didapatkan criticality index. Dari criticality index ini dapat dilihat pekerjaan yang sering berada pada lintasan kritis dan memiliki rentang ketidakpastian yang besar yaitu, kolom, scaffolding, ring beam, pelat lantai.
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The completion of the Magnum Residence Sanur project experienced many changes, namely changes in working hours, heavy equipment, changes in building design. When work began in August, project working hours started at 07.00 WITA until 22.00 WITA. However, as a result of protests from local residents, the project had its working hours changed to 07.00 WITA to 17.00 WITA. This uncertainty has caused delays in work on the Magnum Residence Sanur, which according to the planned schedule is targeted for completion on February 29 2024. The uncertainty that occurs in the project must be measured by carrying out probabilistic scheduling that takes this uncertainty into account. Based on the background above, probabilistic scheduling research will be carried out using the Monte Carlo Simulation. The aim of the research is to estimate the total probabilistic duration of project work items, analyze and compare probabilistic duration with deterministic duration, and analyze work items that are often on a critical path and have a large uncertainty range. The data needed for this research is primary data in the form of a questionnaire on optimistic duration, the most frequently occurring duration and the most frequently occurring duration for each work item. Meanwhile, secondary data from this research is the time schedule and images of the Magnum Residence Sanur project. The Monte Carlo simulation in this research will be carried out through a risk analysis support program. Based on the results of the Monte Carlo simulation using the auxiliary program, the total probabilistic duration with a percentage probability of 80% confidence was 188 days, the median value (te) or percentage of probability of completion with 50% confidence was 186 days, and the percentage probability of completion with 100% confidence was 192 days. . Meanwhile, the deterministic duration of the Magnum Residence Sanur project is 179 days. The deterministic duration is outside the range of the probabilistic duration from the Monte Carlo simulation results. The deterministic scheduling made by the contractor is too optimistic, this can result in possible delays in project completion. From the results of the Monte Carlo simulation, the criticality index is obtained. From this criticality index, it can be seen that work is often on the critical path and has a large uncertainty range, namely, columns, scaffolding, ring beams, floor plates.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Penjadwalan, Probabilistik, Simulasi Monte Carlo ====================================================== Scheduling, Probabilistic, Monte Carlo Simulation
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Made Pradipta Putra Dharmika
Date Deposited:	04 Aug 2024 09:42
Last Modified:	24 Sep 2024 06:41
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/110035

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