Risk Assessment and Risk Response Plan of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Infrastructure Projects (Case Study: Malang - Pandaan Toll Road)

Sarand, Indira (2025) Risk Assessment and Risk Response Plan of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Infrastructure Projects (Case Study: Malang - Pandaan Toll Road). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

According to the Indonesian National Development Planning Agency, a total of Rp 6,445 trillion is required to fulfill the investment for the nation’s infrastructure development. However, DJPPR Kemenkeu stated only 37% of the target could be fulfilled by the state budget (APBN), which raises an urgency for alternative infrastructure financing schemes. The implementation of PPP schemes aims to accelerate quality infrastructure provision by increasing both public and private entity involvement. PPP schemes are designed to optimize risk allocation, increase the efficiency and effectiveness of infrastructure development. Though being seen as a secure financing scheme with an increase of the implementation in many countries, PPP schemes encompasses few risks that require to be further looked into, as projects funded by PPP provides a risk-sharing allocation between both public and private entities. Although a number of studies have examined the risk associated with PPP schemes in infrastructure projects, there are relatively few studies that focus on the operational phase of toll road projects. Due to these limitations, the selection of the Malang - Pandaan Toll Road project is chosen to fulfill the gap of PPP risk factor exploration. This study identifies 13 key risk factors through engagement with stakeholders involved in the Malang - Pandaan Toll Road project, where these initial risk factors are then generated into two hierarchical levels (Level I & Level II) through the Interpretive Structural Modelling approach. These risk factors were then classified into 3 different clusters through the Matrice d’Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliqués à un Classement or also known as the MICMAC analysis approach, determined by each risk factors’ driving and dependence power obtained from the ISM analysis stage. Furthermore, to formulate risk response strategies, each risk factor was calculated using its risk index through the PIM Risk Assessment approach, which involves the multiplication of the probability and impact value of risks to generate a risk matrix based on its severity levels. These severity levels then identifies risk factors to determine its risk allocation for the public and private entities, with a risk mitigation strategy formulated through the alignment of guidelines established by PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia’s 2023 Risk Allocation Standards on Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) PPP Projects for Road Sectors and previous studies with modifications to align with the focus of this study.
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Menurut Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional, total kebutuhan investasi untuk pembangunan infrastruktur di Indonesia mencapai Rp 6.445 triliun. Namun, Menurut Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Pembiayaan dan Risiko (DJPPR) Kementerian Keuangan, hanya 37% dari target tersebut yang dapat dipenuhi melalui Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN), sehingga menimbulkan urgensi untuk menerapkan skema pembiayaan infrastruktur alternatif. Penerapan skema KPBU bertujuan untuk mempercepat penyediaan infrastruktur berkualitas dengan meningkatkan keterlibatan entitas publik maupun swasta. Meskipun dianggap sebagai skema pembiayaan yang aman dengan meningkatnya implementasi di berbagai negara, skema KPBU mencakup beberapa risiko yang perlu diteliti lebih lanjut, karena proyek yang didanai oleh KPBU memberikan alokasi risiko bersama antara entitas publik dan swasta. Walaupun sejumlah penelitian telah menelaah risiko terkait dengan skema KPBU dalam proyek infrastruktur, studi yang berfokus pada tahap operasional proyek jalan tol masih relatif terbatas. Oleh karena itu, pemilihan proyek Jalan Tol Malang - Pandaan dilakukan untuk mengisi kesenjangan eksplorasi faktor risiko KPBU. Penelitian ini mengidentifikasi 13 faktor risiko utama melalui keterlibatan dengan pemangku kepentingan yang terlibat dalam proyek Jalan Tol Malang - pandaan, dimana faktor risiko awal tersebut kemudian diolah menjadi dua level hirarki (Level I & Level II) melalui pendekatan metode Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM). Faktor risiko ini kemudian diklasifikasikan ke dalam tiga klaster berbeda melalui pendekatan Matrice d’Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliqués à un Classement (MICMAC), yang ditentukan berdasarkan driving dan dependence power setiap faktor risiko yang diperoleh dari tahap analisis ISM. Selanjutnya, untuk merumuskan strategi respons risiko, setiap faktor risiko dihitung menggunakan indeks risiko melalui pendekatan PIM Risk Assessment yang melibatkan perkalian antara nilai probabilitas dan dampak risiko untuk menghasilkan matriks risiko berdasarkan tingkat keparahannya. Tingkat keparahan ini kemudian menentukan alokasi risiko tiap faktor, dengan strategi mitigasi yang dirumuskan melalui penyelarasan dengan pedoman yang ditetapkan oleh PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia dalam Acuan Alokasi Risiko Sektor Jalan BOT KPBU tahun 2023 serta studi-studi terdahulu yang telah dimodifikasi agar selaras dengan fokus penelitian ini.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Risk, Public-Private Partnerships, Toll Roads, Interpretive Structural Modelling, MICMAC
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications > HE355.4 Toll roads H Social Sciences > HF Commerce > HF1916 Tariff T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174.5 Technology--Risk assessment. T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Regional & Urban Planning > 35201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Indira Sarand
Date Deposited:	03 Feb 2025 03:58
Last Modified:	03 Feb 2025 03:59
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/117587

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