Analisis Pengambilan Keputusan Multikriteria Berbasis Integrasi AHP dan Bayesian Decision Tree Untuk Pemilihan Metode Penggantian Pipa Bawah Laut

Menteng, Retsa anugrah (2026) Analisis Pengambilan Keputusan Multikriteria Berbasis Integrasi AHP dan Bayesian Decision Tree Untuk Pemilihan Metode Penggantian Pipa Bawah Laut. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Jalur pipa bawah laut Platform X-Y milik PT PHE OSES telah beroperasi melampaui umur desain (design life) dan mengalami degradasi signifikan, yang ditandai dengan frekuensi kegagalan tinggi berupa 17 kali kebocoran dan pemasangan 9 clamp dalam lima tahun terakhir. Kondisi ini menuntut keputusan strategis penanganan aset yang tidak hanya didasarkan pada biaya, tetapi juga risiko teknis dan keselamatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model pengambilan keputusan hibrida yang mengintegrasikan metode Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) dan Bayesian Decision Tree (BDT) untuk memilih metode penggantian pipa yang optimal. Dalam model ini, AHP digunakan untuk menentukan bobot prioritas dari lima kriteria utama: Biaya, HSSE, Teknis, Flow Assurance, dan Integrity. Selanjutnya, metode BDT diterapkan untuk memproses bobot tersebut bersama data probabilitas kegagalan historis dan pembaruan informasi (posterior updating) guna menghitung nilai utilitas dari empat alternatif keputusan: Full Replacement, Segmented Replacement, Localized Repair, dan Do Nothing. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kriteria Integrity memiliki bobot prioritas tertinggi (34%) dalam pengambilan keputusan. Berdasarkan evaluasi Expected Utility (EU) Posterior, metode Full Replacement terpilih sebagai alternatif paling optimal dengan nilai EU tertinggi sebesar 60,55, mengungguli Segmented Replacement (52,23), Localized Repair (43,99), dan Do Nothing (30,54). Model integratif ini memberikan rekomendasi teknis yang objektif bagi manajemen perusahaan untuk memitigasi risiko operasional pipa secara efektif di bawah kondisi ketidakpastian.
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The subsea pipeline connecting Platform X-Y owned by PT PHE OSES has operated beyond its design life and suffered significant degradation, evidenced by a high failure frequency of 17 leaks and 9 clamp installations over the past five years. This condition demands a strategic asset management decision that balances cost against technical risks and safety, which cannot be adequately addressed by financial analysis alone. This research aims to develop a hybrid decision-making model by integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Bayesian Decision Tree (BDT) to select the optimal pipeline replacement method. In this model, AHP is employed to determine the priority weights of five key criteria: Cost, HSSE, Technical, Flow Assurance, and Integrity. Subsequently, BDT is applied to process these weights alongside historical failure probability data and posterior updating to calculate the utility values of four decision alternatives: Full Replacement, Segmented Replacement, Localized Repair, and Do Nothing. The results indicate that the Integrity criterion holds the highest priority weight (34%) in the decision-making process. Based on the Posterior Expected Utility (EU) evaluation, Full Replacement emerged as the optimal alternative with the highest EU value of 60.55, outperforming Segmented Replacement (52.23), Localized Repair (43.99), and Do Nothing (30.54). This integrative model provides objective and measurable technical recommendations for company management to effectively mitigate pipeline operational risks under uncertainty.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Penggantian pipa bawah laut, AHP, Bayesian Decision Tree, Expected Utility, Manajemen Integritas Aset, Subsea pipeline replacement, Asset Integrity Management
Subjects:	T Technology > TH Building construction > TH438 Construction industry--Management. Project management.
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Retsa Anugrah Menteng
Date Deposited:	03 Aug 2026 04:34
Last Modified:	03 Aug 2026 04:34
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/135899

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