Nurhasanah, Nisrina Qonita (2026) Analisis Penentuan Biaya Kontingensi Berbasis Risiko pada Proyek Jalan Tol Menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo : Studi Kasus Simpang Susun Purwomartani Jalan Tol Solo–Yogyakarta–NYIA Kulon Progo. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Proyek jalan tol memiliki tingkat ketidakpastian biaya yang tinggi akibat perubahan kondisi lapangan, keterlambatan material, keterbatasan alat berat, perubahan desain, kondisi tanah, cuaca, serta gangguan utilitas eksisting. Dalam praktiknya, penentuan biaya kontingensi masih sering menggunakan pendekatan berbasis persentase tetap, sehingga kurang mampu merepresentasikan variasi risiko aktual pada setiap aktivitas pekerjaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis biaya kontingensi berbasis risiko pada Proyek Simpang Susun Purwomartani Tol Solo–Yogyakarta–NYIA Kulon Progo menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo. Data penelitian diperoleh dari dokumen proyek yaitu, Rencana Anggaran Biaya, Work Breakdown Structure, serta wawancara dan penilaian ahli dari praktisi proyek. Risiko biaya dimodelkan menggunakan tiga parameter estimasi, yaitu optimis, most likely, dan pesimis, kemudian disimulasikan dengan distribusi probabilitas triangular. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa rencana anggaran biaya proyek sebesar Rp3.090.375.548.231 berada pada tingkat probabilitas 11% atau P11. Hal ini berarti bahwa estimasi biaya awal hanya memiliki peluang kecukupan sebesar 11%, sehingga masih terdapat kemungkinan sekitar 89% total biaya proyek akan melebihi nilai rencana anggaran biaya apabila risiko terjadi selama pelaksanaan. Berdasarkan hasil Simulasi Monte Carlo, nilai probabilistik total biaya proyek pada tingkat keyakinan P50, P80, dan P90 masing-masing adalah sebesar Rp3.135.924.946.589 ,- Rp3.175.625.453.358 ,- dan Rp3.194.532.244.074 ,- Dengan menggunakan Budget at Completion (BAC) merupakan nilai ekspektasi (expected value) yang diperoleh dari rata-rata seluruh hasil simulasi Monte Carlo sebagai acuan biaya probabilistik, kebutuhan biaya kontingensi pada tingkat keyakinan P80 diperoleh sebesar Rp39.700.506.769 atau 1,27% dari nilai BAC. Sementara itu, apabila digunakan tingkat keyakinan yang lebih konservatif, yaitu P90, maka kebutuhan biaya kontingensi meningkat menjadi Rp58.607.297.485,- atau 1,87% dari nilai BAC. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa Simulasi Monte Carlo mampu menghasilkan estimasi biaya kontingensi yang lebih terukur, transparan, dan berbasis tingkat keyakinan dibandingkan pendekatan persentase tetap.
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Toll road projects are characterized by a high level of cost uncertainty due to changes in site conditions, material delays, limited availability of heavy equipment, design changes, soil conditions, weather variability, and disruptions to existing utilities. In practice, contingency costs are still often determined using an approach based on fixed percentages, which is less capable of representing the actual risk variations in each work activity. This study aims to analyze risk-based contingency costs for the Purwomartani Interchange Project of the Solo–Yogyakarta–NYIA Kulon Progo Toll Road using Monte Carlo Simulation.The research data were obtained from project documents, the Bill of Quantities, Work Breakdown Stucture, as well as interviews and expert assessments from project practitioners. Cost risks were modeled using three estimation parameters, namely optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic costs, and were then simulated using a triangular probability distribution.The simulation results show that the project estimation cost, of IDR 3,090,375,548,231 is positioned at a probability level of 11%, or P11. This indicates that the initial cost estimate has only a 11% probability of budget sufficiency, meaning that there is still approximately a 89% probability that the total project cost will exceed the baseline value if risks occur during project implementation. Based on the Monte Carlo Simulation results, the probabilistic total project costs at confidence levels P50, P80, and P90 are IDR 3.135.924.946.589, IDR 3.175.625.453.358 , and IDR 3.194.532.244.074 , Based on the Budget at Completion (BAC), defined as the expected value derived from the mean of all Monte Carlo simulation results and adopted as the probabilistic cost baseline, the required contingency cost at the P80 confidence level was estimated to be IDR 39,700,506,769, representing 1.27% of the BAC. Meanwhile, when a more conservative confidence level, P90, is used, the required contingency cost increases to IDR 58.607.297.485, or 1.87% of the P50 value. These findings indicate that Monte Carlo Simulation can produce contingency cost estimates that are more measurable, transparent, and confidence-level-based compared to the traditional percentage method approach.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | biaya kontingensi, manajemen risiko proyek, Simulasi Monte Carlo, distribusi triangular, proyek jalan tol, contingency cost, project risk management, Monte Carlo Simulation, triangular distribution, toll road project. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD47 Costs H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management T Technology > TH Building construction > TH438 Construction industry--Management. Project management. |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Civil, Environmental, and Geo Engineering > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Theses |
| Depositing User: | Nisrina Qonita Nurhasanah |
| Date Deposited: | 29 Jul 2026 04:48 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Jul 2026 04:48 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/138880 |
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