Analisis Investasi Dan Sensitivitas Proyek Perumahan Di Sukomanunggal Surabaya Barat

Prakosa, Aryo Bimo Putra (2026) Analisis Investasi Dan Sensitivitas Proyek Perumahan Di Sukomanunggal Surabaya Barat. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pembangunan perumahan di Kota Surabaya merupakan salah satu bentuk investasi properti yang memiliki prospek pengembangan, tetapi juga dihadapkan pada berbagai ketidakpastian yang dapat memengaruhi kinerja investasi. Perubahan biaya konstruksi, harga jual unit, biaya lahan, dan tingkat pengembalian pinjaman dapat memengaruhi arus kas serta hasil investasi proyek. Penelitian ini menganalisis investasi dan sensitivitas proyek perumahan Tierra Residence di Sukomanunggal, Surabaya Barat. Proyek yang dianalisis mengalami perubahan rencana pengembangan dengan peningkatan kapasitas dari 37 unit menjadi 62 unit. Analisis dilakukan berdasarkan penyusunan arus kas proyek selama periode investasi lima tahun. Kinerja investasi dianalisis menggunakan metode capital budgeting dengan indikator Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), dan Payback Period (PP). Selain itu, analisis sensitivitas dilakukan menggunakan pendekatan one-way sensitivity analysis terhadap perubahan biaya konstruksi, harga jual unit rumah, biaya lahan, dan tingkat pengembalian pinjaman. Hasil analisis capital budgeting dengan Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) sebesar 7,40% menghasilkan NPV sebesar Rp25.505.722.211,52, IRR sebesar 27,02%, dan Payback Period selama empat tahun dalam periode investasi lima tahun. Hasil analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa investasi masih dapat dipertahankan hingga terjadi kenaikan biaya konstruksi sebesar 50,49%, kenaikan biaya lahan sebesar 15,81%, penurunan harga jual unit rumah sebesar 9,85%, dan kenaikan tingkat pengembalian pinjaman sebesar 125,45%. Harga jual unit merupakan variabel yang paling sensitif karena memiliki batas perubahan relatif paling kecil dibandingkan variabel lainnya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perubahan harga jual unit perlu menjadi perhatian utama dalam pengelolaan risiko investasi proyek perumahan.
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Housing development in Surabaya City represents a form of property investment with development prospects, but it is also subject to various uncertainties that may affect investment performance. Changes in construction costs, unit selling prices, land costs, and loan return rates may affect project cash flows and investment outcomes. This study analyzes the investment and sensitivity of the Tierra Residence housing project in Sukomanunggal, West Surabaya. The analyzed project underwent a change in its development plan, increasing its capacity from 37 units to 62 units. The analysis was conducted based on the preparation of the project’s cash flow over a five-year investment period. Investment performance was analyzed using capital budgeting methods through the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP) indicators. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted using a one-way sensitivity analysis approach to assess changes in construction costs, residential unit selling prices, land costs, and loan return rates. The results of the capital budgeting analysis, using a Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) of 7.40%, yielded an NPV of IDR 25,505,722,211.52, an IRR of 27.02%, and a Payback Period of four years within the five-year investment period. The sensitivity analysis showed that the investment could withstand an increase in construction costs of up to 50.49%, an increase in land costs of up to 15.81%, a decrease in residential unit selling prices of up to 9.85%, and an increase in loan return rates of up to 125,45%. The unit selling prices were identified as the most sensitive variable because it had the smallest relative tolerance for change compared with the other variables. The results indicate that changes in unit selling prices require primary attention in managing investment risks in housing projects.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Analisis sensitivitas, Capital Budgeting, Investasi Properti, Perumahan, Capital Budgeting, Housing, Property Investment, Sensitivity Analysis
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) T Technology > TH Building construction > TH11 Builders' and contractors' bulletins. Including prices, permits, etc. T Technology > TH Building construction > TH438 Construction industry--Management. Project management. T Technology > TH Building construction > TH4811 House construction
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Prakosa Aryo Bimo Putra
Date Deposited:	30 Jul 2026 06:03
Last Modified:	30 Jul 2026 06:03
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/139282

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