Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Koran Harian Berlangganan Di PT. Jawa Pos Dengan Menggunakan Arima Box-Jenkins

Rismayanti, Tri Emira (2017) Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Koran Harian Berlangganan Di PT. Jawa Pos Dengan Menggunakan Arima Box-Jenkins. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya.

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Abstract

Perkembangan teknologi mampu membuat pola hidup seseorang menjadi berubah dalam memperoleh informasi. Berita dan informasi sangat mudah diperoleh melalui gadget yang telah tersambung oleh internet, oleh karena itu kejadian tersebut mampu mempengaruhi jumlah penjualan koran harian berlangganan PT. Jawa Pos Koran. Jumlah penjualan oplah koran harian berlangganan yang didistribusikan di daerah Gresik oleh PT. Jawa Pos Koran telah mengalami fluktuasi yang cenderung menurun sehingga perlu dilakukan peramalan jumlah penjualan koran berlangganan beberapa periode kedepan dengan menggunakan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins yang nantinya dapat membantu perusahaan dalam mengambil kebijakan dalam mengatasi semakin menurunnya jumlah pelanggan koran harian di daerah Gresik. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik untuk meramalkan jumlah penjualan koran harian berlangganan yang didistribusikan di daerah Gresik oleh PT. Jawa Pos Koran adalah ARIMA ([17],1,0) dengan nilai akurasi RMSE sebesar 135,3566; sMAPE sebesar 2,1048; MAE sebesar 101,7460. ========================================================================================================================The technology advances make a person's lifestyle becomes changed in obtaining information. News and information is very easy to obtain through gadgets that have been connected by the internet, therefore these events can affect the number of daily newspaper sales subscription PT. Jawa Pos Koran. Total sales of daily newspaper subscriptions distributed in the Gresik area by PT. Jawa Pos Koran has experienced fluctuations that tend to decline so it is necessary to forecast the number of sales newspaper subscription several periods ahead by using ARIMA Box-Jenkins method which will help the company in taking policy in overcoming the decreasing number of daily newspaper subscribers in Gresik area. The results of the analysis show that the best model to forecast the number of sales of subscription daily newspapers distributed in the Gresik area by PT. Jawa Pos Koran is ARIMA ([17], 1,0) with an RMSE accuracy value of 135,3566; SMAPE of 2,1048; MAE of 101,7460.

Item Type: Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords: ARIMA, Jawa Pos, Koran
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce > HF5549 Job analysis
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > (D3) Diploma
Depositing User: Tri Emira Rismayanti
Date Deposited: 11 Aug 2017 08:35
Last Modified: 05 Mar 2019 03:10
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/42281

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