Yuniasari, Evika Rachma (2019) Pemodelan Probabilitas Gempa Bumi Menggunakan Teori Nilai Ekstrem. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Salah satu bencana alam yang sering terjadi di Indonesia adalah Gempa Bumi, yang menyebabkan banyak korban jiwa serta dampak yang besar di sektor ekonomi maupun material. Antisipasi risiko yang akan terjadi pada kejadian selanjutnya, diperlukan pengetahuan mengenai probabilitas dari nilai-nilai ekstrem pada gempa bumi berdasarkan data historis gempa bumi. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui model distribusi dan probabilitas exceedance dari data ekstrem magnitudo gempa bumi di Indonesia pada Januari 2009-Desember 2018. Metode yang digunakan adalah Teori Nilai Ekstrem. Salah satu pendekatan untuk mengidentifikasi nilai ekstrem adalah Block Maxima yang mengikuti distribus Generalized Extreme Value (GEV). Estimasi parameter lokasi, bentuk dan skala didapatkan melalui MLE yang selanjutnya diselesaikan dengan BFGS Quasi-Newton, karena menghasilkan persamaan yang tidak closed form. Parameter bentuk yang didapat menghasilkan model distribusi tipe Weibull untuk Data Magnitudo Gempa Bumi. Model distribusi tersebut dapat menentukan peluang terjadinya Gempa Bumi di Indonesia pada Januari 2009-Desember 2018 melalui Probabilitas Exceedance.
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One of the natural disasters that often occurs in Indonesia is the Earthquake, which causes many casualties and a large impact on the economic and material sectors. The anticipation of the risks that will occur in subsequent events, knowledge of the probability of extreme values of earthquakes is needed based on historical earthquake data. This study was conducted to determine the distribution model and the probability of exceedance from extreme data on earthquake magnitude in Indonesia from January 2009 to December 2018. The method used is the Theory of Extreme Value. One approach to identifying extreme values is Block Maxima which follows the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The estimation of location, shape and scale parameters are obtained through MLE which is then solved by BFGS Quasi-Newton because it produces equations that are not closed form. The shape parameter obtained to produce a Weibull type distribution model for Earthquake Magnitude Data. The distribution model can determine the chances of an earthquake in Indonesia in January 2009-December 2018 through the Exceedance Probability.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSMa 519.2 Yun p-1 2019 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Magnitudo, Teori Nilai Ekstrem, Generalized Extreme Value, Probabilitas Exceedance |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA614.58 Catastrophes |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics, Computation, and Data Science > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Evika Rachma Yuniasari |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Apr 2024 06:47 |
| Last Modified: | 24 Apr 2024 06:47 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/65976 |
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