Khilmy, Akhmad (2020) Risk Assessment Menggunakan Hybrid Fault Tree Analysis - Monte Carlo Simulation Pada Proyek Instalasi Genset PT. ABC Di Kalimantan, NTB , Papua, Sulawsi Dan Maluku. Masters thesis, InstitutTeknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Perusahaan ABC mendapatkan proyek instalasi genset di daerah Kalimantan, NTB, Papua, Sulawesi dan Maluku dengan estimasi waktu pengerjaan 16 bulan. Tetapi pada implementasinya, proyek ini mengalami keterlambatan menjadi 20 bulan yang mengakibatkan pembengkakan biaya yang dihadapi perusahaan. Padahal untuk kurun waktu ke depan, perusahaan akan mendapatkan proyek serupa. Untuk menghindari keterlambatan dan kerugian di proyek instalsi genset kedepannya, penelitian tesis ini memiliki tujuan untuk melakukan asesmen risiko menggunakan Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) dan Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) untuk mendapatkan risiko kritis dan langkah mitigasinya. Dari hasil FTA dan perhitungan minimal cut set, didapati 13 kejadian dasar beserta probabilitsnya. Kemudian, penelitian ini menggunakan pendapat ahli untuk menentukan konsekuensi dari masing-masing kejadian tersebut. Setelah itu, nilai probabilitas kejadian dan konsekuensi menjadi input untuk melakukan simulasi monte carlo. Hasilnya, didapati 7 risiko kritis (extreme) penyebab terjadinya kegagalan pada proyek instalasi genset yang langkah penanganannya butuh untuk memperhatikan aspek teknis dan aspek non teknis. Terdapat 1 risiko bernilai tinggi (high) yang membutuhkan langkah mitigasi penggantian alat. Satu risiko dengan nilai sedang yang membutuhkan langkah mitigasi transfer, dan 4 risiko dengan nilai risiko rendah yang dapat diterima.
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The ABC company had an installation of generator set (genset) project in Kalimantan, NTB, Papua, Sulawesi and Maluku. This project has estimated to be completeted in 16 moths, but it delayed up to 20 months that caused cost overruns. This study have purpose to assess the risk that caused the project delay using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Monte Carlo Simulaton (MCS), since the company have to face the similar project in those area in the future. Thus, the company can have suggestion about the mitigation of the risk. From the risk assessment using FTA and calculation using minimal cut set, it has found 13 basic events that caused risk and its probability. This research also ask for expert estimation to determine the consequence value for each event. The probability value and consequence value will be generated to run in MCS.The simulation results the risk value. Seven events are identified as a critical risk that have extreme risk value, therefore it needs to look for the technically aspects and non-technically aspects to mitigate the risk. One risk has a high risk value that need to change the project’s equipment to mitigate the risk. One risk has medium risk value that need to transfer the risk to the third party company to mitigate the risk. The last, there are four risks that can be accepted as it only has low risk value.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RTMT 658.155 Khi r-1 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Genset, Risk Assessment, Fault Tree Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation Genset, Risk Assessment, Fault Tree Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation |
| Subjects: | T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174.5 Technology--Risk assessment. T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery > TJ799 Diesel motor--Electronic control. |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Business and Management Technology > Management Technology > 61101-(S2) Master Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Akhmad khilmy |
| Date Deposited: | 17 Mar 2025 03:24 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Mar 2025 03:24 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/76559 |
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